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Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound

Author

Listed:
  • Nathaniel Throckmorton

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

  • Benjamin Keen

    (University of Oklahoma)

  • Alexander Richter

    (Auburn University)

  • William Gavin

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. louis)

Abstract

This article presents global solutions to standard New Keynesian models to show how economic dynamics change when the nominal interest rate is constrained at its zero lower bound (ZLB). We focus on the canonical New Keynesian model without capital, but we also study the model with capital, with and without investment adjustment costs. Our solution method emphasizes accuracy to capture the expectational effects of hitting the ZLB and returning to a positive interest rate. We find that the response to a technology shock has perverse consequences when the ZLB binds, even when a discount factor shock drives the interest rate to zero. Although we do not model the large scale asset purchases used by the Fed since 2009, our results suggest that the economy may have trouble recovering if the interest rate remains at zero. Given the perverse dynamics at the ZLB, we evaluate how monetary policy affects the likelihood of encountering the ZLB. We find that the probability of hitting the ZLB depends importantly on the monetary policy rule. A policy rule based on a dual mandate, such as the one proposed by Taylor (1993), is more likely to cause ZLB events when the central bank places greater emphasis on the output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathaniel Throckmorton & Benjamin Keen & Alexander Richter & William Gavin, 2013. "Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," 2013 Meeting Papers 839, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:839
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    2. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "The stimulative effect of forward guidance," Working Papers 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2016. "The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 630-651, June.
    4. Richter Alexander W. & Throckmorton Nathaniel A., 2015. "The zero lower bound: frequency, duration, and numerical convergence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, January.
    5. Alexander Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton & Todd Walker, 2014. "Accuracy, Speed and Robustness of Policy Function Iteration," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 445-476, December.
    6. Willi Semmler & Christian R. Proaño, 2015. "Escape Routes from Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro Area," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: William A. Barnett & Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 163-193, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    7. Ajevskis, Viktors, 2019. "Nonlocal Solutions To Dynamic Equilibrium Models: The Approximate Stable Manifolds Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(6), pages 2544-2571, September.
    8. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    9. Yi Wen, 2013. "Evaluating unconventional monetary policies -why aren’t they more effective?," Working Papers 2013-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Maria Lucia Florez-Jimenez & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2016. "Forward guidance with an escape clause: when half a promise is better than a full one," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(15), pages 1372-1381, March.
    11. Michael Plante & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2018. "The Zero Lower Bound and Endogenous Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1730-1757, June.
    12. Eggertsson, Gauti & Ferrero, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2014. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 2-22.
    13. Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2014. "Lower Bounds on Approximation Errors: Testing the Hypothesis That a Numerical Solution Is Accurate?," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2014-06, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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