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Small and orthodox fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound

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  • Braun, R. Anton

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Korber, Lena Mareen

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Waki, Yuichiro

    () (The University of Queensland)

Abstract

Does fiscal policy have large and qualitatively different effects on the economy when the nominal interest rate is zero? An emerging consensus in the New Keynesian literature is that the answer is yes. New evidence provided here suggests that the answer is often no. For a broad range of empirically relevant parameterizations of the Rotemberg model of costly price adjustment, the government purchase multiplier is about one or less, and the response of hours to a tax cut is either negative or close to zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Braun, R. Anton & Korber, Lena Mareen & Waki, Yuichiro, 2013. "Small and orthodox fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2013-13
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    Cited by:

    1. Boneva, Lena & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2015. "Threshold-based forward guidance: hedging the zero bound," Bank of England working papers 561, Bank of England.
    2. Lee E. Ohanian, 2016. "The Great Recession in the Shadow of the Great Depression: A Review Essay on “Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession and the Uses and Misuses Of History”," NBER Working Papers 22239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Florin O. Bilbiie & Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2014. "Is Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound Desirable?," NBER Working Papers 20687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nakata, Taisuke, 2016. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with occasionally binding zero bound constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 220-240.
    5. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2014. "Conservatism and Liquidity Traps," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 059, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Jul 2015.
    6. Taisuke Nakata, . "Reputation and Liquidity Traps," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2015. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Working Paper Series 1795, European Central Bank.
    8. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The zero lower bound, the dual mandate, and unconventional dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 14-38.
    9. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," BIS Working Papers 553, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2015. "Conservatism and Liquidity Traps," Working Papers e101, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    11. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Phuong Ngo & Jianjun Miao, 2015. "Does Calvo Meet Rotemberg at the Zero Lower Bound?," 2015 Meeting Papers 602, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2014. "Self-defeating austerity at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 14/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. L. Arrondel & P. Lamarche & F. Savignac, 2015. "Wealth Effects on Consumption across the Wealth Distribution: Empirical Evidence," Working papers 552, Banque de France.
    15. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2014. "Conservatism and Liquidity Traps," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 059, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Jul 2015.
    16. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data," NBER Working Papers 20719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. repec:aea:aejmac:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:186-221 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 36-53.
    19. DI SERIO, Mario & FRAGETTA, Matteo & GASTEIGER, Emanuel, 2017. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States," CELPE Discussion Papers 150, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; zero interest rate; fiscal multipliers;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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