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Seven Faces of "The Peril"

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Abstract

In this paper the author discusses the possibility that the U.S. economy may become enmeshed in a Japanese-style deflationary outcome within the next several years. To frame the discussion, the author relies on an analysis that emphasizes two possible long-run steady states for the economy: one that is consistent with monetary policy as it has typically been implemented in the United States in recent years and one that is consistent with the low nominal interest rate, deflationary regime observed in Japan during the same period. The data considered seem to be quite consistent with the two steady-state possibilities. The author describes and critiques seven stories that are told in monetary policy circles regarding this analysis and emphasizes two main conclusions: (i) The Federal Open Market Committee's "extended period" language may be increasing the probability of a Japanese-style outcome for the United States and (ii), on balance, the U.S. quantitative easing program offers the best tool to avoid such an outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • Bullard, James B., 2013. "Seven Faces of "The Peril"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 613-628.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The lower and upper bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's long-run inflation objective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 183-194.
    2. Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1438-1463, November.
    3. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
    4. Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "The large scale asset purchases had large international effects," Working Papers 2010-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gibbs, Christopher G., 2018. "Learning to believe in secular stagnation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 50-54.
    2. Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Which comes first: inflation or the FOMC's funds rate target?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2014. "Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 220-238.
    4. Piazza, Roberto, 2016. "Self-fulfilling deflations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 18-40.
    5. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary science, fiscal alchemy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-434.
    6. Airaudo, Marco & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Interest rate rules, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics in open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1566-1584.
    7. Hans-Peter Burghof & Max Otte & Tobias Tröger & Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit & Martin Klein, 2015. "Negativzinsen bei Geschäftsbanken: Welche Effekte sind zu erwarten?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), pages 05-25, January.
    8. William Gavin & Benjamin Keen, 2013. "U.S. Monetary Policy: A View from Macro Theory," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 33-49, February.
    9. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2013. "Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-17, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    10. James Bullard, 2013. "EconomicDynamics Interviews James Bullard on policy and the academic world," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), November.
    11. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2014. "Liquidity Traps: an Interest-rate-based Exit Strategy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(S1), pages 1-14, September.
    12. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    13. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Interest Rates Close to Zero, Post-crisis Restructuring and Natural Interest Rate," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(3), pages 315-329.
    14. Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "Lack of confidence, the zero lower bound, and the virtue of fiscal rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 36-53.
    15. Lee C. Spector & Courtenay C. Stone, 2010. "Suspicious Estimates of Ex Ante Real Interest Rates: Evidence of Macroeconomic Malpractice?," Working Papers 201010, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    16. Bart Hobijn & Colin Gardiner, 2010. "The breadth of disinflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec6.
    17. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2010. "Liquidity Traps: An Interest-Rate-Based Exit Strategy," NBER Working Papers 16514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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