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Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy

  • George W. Evans

    ()

    (University of Oregon Economics Department and University of St. Andrews)

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    ()

    (Bank of Finland, Helsinki, Finland)

We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For large expectation shocks pushing interest rates to the zero lower bound, temporary increases in government spending can be used to insulate the economy from deflation traps.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2010-5_Evans_Deflation.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2010-5.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 06 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2010-5
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  1. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6216, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June.
  4. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 13259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  6. Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Kiel Working Papers 1341, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  7. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker W. Wieland, 1998. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2005. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
  10. Thomas J Sargent, 2007. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001821, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Learning and Macroeconomics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 421-451, 05.
  12. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," NBER Working Papers 10195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  14. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Policy interaction, expectation and the liquidity trap," Research Discussion Papers 22/2003, Bank of Finland.
  15. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  16. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Paul Romer, 1996. "Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  18. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
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