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Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy

Listed author(s):
  • George W. Evans

    ()

    (University of Oregon Economics Department and University of St. Andrews)

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    ()

    (Bank of Finland, Helsinki, Finland)

We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For large expectation shocks pushing interest rates to the zero lower bound, temporary increases in government spending can be used to insulate the economy from deflation traps.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2010-5_Evans_Deflation.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2010-5.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 06 Jul 2010
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2010-5
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1285 University of Oregon, 435 PLC, Eugene, OR 97403-1285

Phone: (541) 346-8845
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Web page: http://economics.uoregon.edu/
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  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Policy interaction, expectations, and the liquidity trap," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  3. Coenen, Günter & Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/13, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 200717, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  6. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  7. Thomas J Sargent, 2007. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001821, UCLA Department of Economics.
  8. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Paul Romer & George Evans & Seppo Hokapohja, "undated". "Growth Cycles," Home Pages _001, Stanford University.
  12. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  13. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Learning and Macroeconomics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 421-451, 05.
  14. Evans, G.W. & Guse, E. & Honkapohja, S, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0732, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2007. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 728-752, April.
  16. Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2007. "Central bank communication and expectations stabilization," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-43.
  17. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  18. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," NBER Working Papers 10195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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