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The limits of central bank forward guidance under learning

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  • Cole, Stephen

Abstract

Central bank forward guidance emerged as a pertinent tool for monetary policymakers since the Great Recession. Nevertheless, the effects of forward guidance remain unclear. This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance while relaxing two standard macroeconomic assumptions: rational expectations and frictionless financial markets. Agents forecast future macroeconomic variables via either the rational expectations hypothesis or a more plausible theory of expectations formation called adaptive learning. A standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is extended to include the financial accelerator mechanism. The results show that the addition of financial frictions amplifies the differences between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance. The macroeconomic variables are overall more responsive to forward guidance under rational expectations than under adaptive learning. During a period of economic crisis (e.g. a recession), output under rational expectations displays more favorable responses to forward guidance than under adaptive learning. These differences are exacerbated when compared to a similar analysis without financial frictions. Thus, monetary policymakers should consider the way in which expectations and credit frictions are modeled when examining the effects of forward guidance.

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  • Cole, Stephen, 2016. "The limits of central bank forward guidance under learning," MPRA Paper 70862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:70862
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Limits of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Learning
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2016-06-10 19:11:50

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    Cited by:

    1. Cole, Stephen J. & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2023. "The effect of central bank credibility on forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 532-570, March.
    2. Parra-Polania Julian A., 2019. "State-Dependent Forward Guidance and the Problem of Inconsistent Announcements," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 1019-1027, December.
    3. Cole, Stephen J. & Milani, Fabio, 2019. "The Misspecification Of Expectations In New Keynesian Models: A Dsge-Var Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 974-1007, April.
    4. Greta Meggiorini & Fabio Milani, 2021. "Behavioral New Keynesian Models: Learning vs. Cognitive Discounting," Working Papers 202103, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    5. Stephen Cole & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Eric R. Sims, 2023. "Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 31777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Edward Nelson, 2021. "The Emergence of Forward Guidance As a Monetary Policy Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Cole, Stephen J. & Milani, Fabio, 2021. "Heterogeneity in individual expectations, sentiment, and constant-gain learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 627-650.
    8. de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2021. "A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)," Working Paper Series 2555, European Central Bank.
    9. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok, 2021. "Optimal monetary policy mix at the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 945, Bank of England.
    10. Cole, Stephen J., 2018. "The effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 146-161.
    11. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward Guidance; Monetary Policy; Adaptive Learning; Expectations; Financial Frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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