IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofrdp/rdp2011_022.html

Policy change and learning in the RBC model

Author

Listed:
  • Kaushik, Mitra
  • Evans, George W.
  • Honkapohja, Seppo

Abstract

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Both permanent and temporary policy changes are analyzed. Dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism, followed by subsequent corrections.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaushik, Mitra & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2011, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2011_022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212201/1/bof-rdp2011-022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bartholomew Moore, 2016. "The stability of learning prior to an anticipated change in the target inflation rate," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 267-293.
    3. F. Di Pace & K. Mitra & S. Zhang, 2021. "Adaptive Learning and Labor Market Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 441-475, March.
    4. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The consequences of an unknown debt target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 76-96.
    5. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    6. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 142-162.
    7. Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2019. "Learning And The Size Of The Government Spending Multiplier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3189-3224, December.
    8. F. Di Pace & K. Mitra & S. Zhang, 2021. "Adaptive Learning and Labor Market Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 441-475, March.
    9. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Sinitskaya, Ekaterina & Tesfatsion, Leigh, 2015. "Macroeconomies as constructively rational games," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 152-182.
    11. Brecht Boone & Ewoud Quaghebeur, 2017. "Real-Time Parameterized Expectations And The Effects Of Government Spending," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/939, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2014. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 113-126.
    13. Seppo Honkapohja & Arja H. Turunen-Red & Alan D. Woodland, 2016. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1441-1469, November.
    14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Expectations, Stagnation, And Fiscal Policy: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1397-1425, August.
    15. Seppo Honkapohja, 2016. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 235-256, May.
    16. Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2015. "Learnability of an equilibrium with private information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-74.
    17. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Kulish, Mariano, 2017. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 157-174.
    18. Chávez, Ricardo & García, Carlos J., 2016. "Reforma tributaria en fases," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(330), pages .275-310, abril-jun.
    19. Moore, Bartholomew, 2016. "Anticipated disinflation and recession in the New Keynesian model under learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 49-52.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2011_022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.