IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty

  • Josef Hollmayr
  • Christian Matthes

The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The agents in our model act as econometricians by estimating the policy rules for the different fiscal policy instruments, which include distortionary tax rates. ; Comparing the outcomes in our model to those under full-information rational expectations, we find that assuming the agents are not instantaneously aware of the new fiscal policy regime (or policy rule) in place leads to substantially more volatility in the short run and persistent differences in average outcomes

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/working_papers/2013/pdf/wp13-15.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 13-15.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-15
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.richmondfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/ Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
  2. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2004. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 36, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Jess Benhabib & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2014. "Liquidity Traps and Expectation Dynamics: Fiscal Stimulus or Fiscal Austerity?," CDMA Working Paper Series 201407, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  4. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 10764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2013. "Policy Risk and the Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 4336, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
  7. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2011. "Fiscal volatility shocks and economic activity," Working Papers 11-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Thomas J. Sargent & Noah William, 2005. "Impacts of Priors on Convergence and Escapes from Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 360-391, April.
  9. Mitra , Kaushik & Evans , George W. & Honkapohja , Seppo, 2011. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Research Discussion Papers 22/2011, Bank of Finland.
  10. Emanuel Gasteiger & Shoujian Zhang, 2013. "Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation," CDMA Working Paper Series 201301, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  11. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  12. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5877, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2010. "Toward a Taylor rule for fiscal policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
  15. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
  16. John Cogan & Tobias Cwik & John Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "New Keynesian Versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers," Discussion Papers 08-030, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  17. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Benefits from U.S. monetary policy experimentation in the days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja , Seppo, 2012. "Fiscal policy and learning," Research Discussion Papers 5/2012, Bank of Finland.
  19. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  20. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: some consequences of debt management policy," Staff Reports 515, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  21. Harald Uhlig, 2010. "Some Fiscal Calculus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 30-34, May.
  22. Eric M. Leeper & Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2009. "Dynamics Of Fiscal Financing In The United States," Caepr Working Papers 2009-012, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  23. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
  24. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
  25. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
  26. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "On the Evolution of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 24-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
  27. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2010. ""Unfunded Liabilities" and Uncertain Fiscal Financing," NBER Working Papers 15782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. In-Koo Cho & Ken Kasa, 2012. "Model Validation and Learning," Discussion Papers dp12-07, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  30. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
  31. repec:oup:restud:v:72:y:2005:i:3:p:821-852 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  33. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2013. "Online Appendix to "Toward a Taylor Rule for Fiscal Policy"," Technical Appendices 12-15, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  34. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Debt, Policy Uncertainty and Expectations Stabilization," CAMA Working Papers 2010-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  35. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2013. "Managing pessimistic expectations and fiscal policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
  36. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (William Perkins)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.