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Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs

Author

Listed:
  • Troy Davig
  • Andrew T. Foerster

Abstract

Large pending fiscal policy changes, such as in the United States in 2012 or in Japan with consumption taxes, often generate considerable uncertainty. ?Fiscal cliff? episodes have several features: an announced possible future change, a skewed set of possible out-comes, the possibility that implementation may not actually occur, and a known resolution date. This paper develops a model capturing these features and studies their impact. Fiscal cliff uncertainty shocks have immediate impact, with a magnitude that depends on the probability of implementation, which generates economic volatility. The possibility of fiscal cliffs lowers economic activity even in periods of relative certainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Troy Davig & Andrew T. Foerster, 2018. "Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs," Working Paper Series 2018-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2018-12
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2018-12
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    2. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2022. "Social security and longevity risk: An analysis of couples," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(3), pages 547-579, June.
    3. Murray, James, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," MPRA Paper 57409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ivana Lolić & Petar Sorić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Meets Ensemble Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(2), pages 401-437, August.
    5. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2015. "The consequences of an unknown debt target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 76-96.
    6. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Fotiou, Alexandra & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2020. "The fiscal state-dependent effects of capital income tax cuts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.
    9. Pablo Garcia, 2021. "Learning, expectations and monetary policy," BCL working papers 153, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. Bi, Huixin & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2016. "Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 142-157.
    11. Andrew T. Foerster, 2014. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-26.
    12. Kim, Wongi, 2019. "Government spending policy uncertainty and economic activity: US time series evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Higgins, C. Richard, 2023. "Risk and Uncertainty: The Role of Financial Frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Hollmayr, Josef, 2018. "Fiscal regimes and the (non)stationarity of debt," Discussion Papers 11/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Caliendo, Frank N. & Guo, Nick L. & Smith, Jason M., 2018. "Policy uncertainty and bank bailouts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 111-125.
    16. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sitthiyot, Thitithep, 2015. "Macroeconomic and Financial Management in an Uncertain World: What Can We Learn from Complexity Science?," MPRA Paper 73753, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Dec 2015.
    18. Ansgar Belke & Pascal Goemans, 2021. "Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 623-646, May.
    19. Caliendo, Frank N. & Gorry, Aspen & Slavov, Sita, 2019. "The cost of uncertainty about the timing of Social Security reform," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 101-125.
    20. Richter, Alexander W., 2015. "Finite lifetimes, long-term debt and the fiscal limit," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 180-203.
    21. Shoag, Daniel & Veuger, Stan, 2016. "Uncertainty and the geography of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 84-93.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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