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Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation

  • Gasteiger, Emanuel
  • Zhang, Shoujian

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in the Ramsey economy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents' decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behaviour. Moreover, we demonstrate that this behaviour can have important implications for the welfare consequences of fiscal reforms.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30625.

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Date of creation: 18 Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30625
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  1. Evans, G.W. & Honkapohja ,S. & Mitra, K., 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0705, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  19. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Kaushik, Mitra, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence hold when expectations are not rational?," Research Discussion Papers 13/2010, Bank of Finland.
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  23. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
  24. Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262018748.
  25. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchoring fiscal expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 17-42, September.
  26. Evans , George W & Honkapohja , Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence hold when expectations are not rational?," Research Discussion Papers 13/2010, .
  27. Mitra , Kaushik & Evans , George W. & Honkapohja , Seppo, 2011. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Research Discussion Papers 22/2011, .
  28. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
  29. Anton Braun, R., 1994. "Tax disturbances and real economic activity in the postwar United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 441-462, June.
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  32. Kaushik, Mitra & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Research Discussion Papers 22/2011, Bank of Finland.
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