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Does Ricardian Equivalence hold when expectations are not rational?

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  • Evans, George W.
  • Honkapohja, Seppo
  • Kaushik, Mitra

Abstract

This paper shows that the Ricardian Equivalence proposition can continue to hold when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. In temporary equilibrium, with given expectations, Ricardian Equivalence holds under the standard conditions for its validity under rational expectations. Furthermore, Ricardian Equivalence holds for paths of temporary equilibria under learning provided suitable additional conditions on learning dynamics are satisfied. New cases of failure of the Ricardian proposition emerge under learning. Most importantly, agents expectations must not depend on government financial variables under deficit financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Kaushik, Mitra, 2010. "Does Ricardian Equivalence hold when expectations are not rational?," Research Discussion Papers 13/2010, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2010_013
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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, George W. & Mitra, Kaushik, 2013. "E-stability in the stochastic Ramsey model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 407-410.
    2. Seppo Honkapohja, 2016. "Monetary policies to counter the zero interest rate: an overview of research," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 235-256, May.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2014. "Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 220-238.
    4. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Comparing Inflation and Price-Level Targeting: The Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 27-59, December.
    5. F. Di Pace & K. Mitra & S. Zhang, 2021. "Adaptive Learning and Labor Market Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 441-475, March.
    6. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis Without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 303-346, May.
    8. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2014. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 113-126.
    9. Caprioli, Francesco, 2015. "Optimal fiscal policy under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 101-124.
    10. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2018. "Fiscal Foundations of Inflation: Imperfect Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2551-2589, September.
    11. Divino, José Angelo & Orrillo, Jaime, 2017. "Failure of the Ricardian Equivalence Theory in Economies with Incomplete Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(1), May.
    12. De Grauwe, Paul & Foresti, Pasquale, 2020. "Animal Spirits and Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 247-263.
    13. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    14. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 52-67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
    16. Eunji Kim & Yoonhee Ha & Sangheon Kim, 2017. "Public Debt, Corruption and Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(3), pages 1-30, March.
    17. Branch, William A. & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2019. "Endogenously (non-)Ricardian beliefs," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2019, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    18. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers In An Rbc Model With Learning," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 240-283, January.
    19. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2019. "Defaultnomics: Making Sense of the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence in a Financialized World," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_933, Levy Economics Institute.
    20. Honkapohja, Seppo & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "On Robustness of Average Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 16001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Bruce Preston, 2013. "Comment on "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 47-58, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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