IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ura/ecregj/v1y2016i4p1090-1101.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Var — analysis of global financial economic crisis impact on public budget and unemployment: evidence from the economy of the Kyrgyz republic

Author

Listed:
  • Nargiza Alymkulova

    () (International Ataturk Alatoo University)

  • Nurlan Atabaev

    () (International Ataturk Alatoo University)

  • Junus Ganiev

    () (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University)

Abstract

The Global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in the early of 2009. The article examines the impact of the Global financial economic crisis on the public budget and unemployment of the Kyrgyz Republic. We analyzed the transmission of the crisis on the public budget firstly and its effect on unemployment level by using the vector autoregression approach (VAR) and quarterly data for 2005–2013 within the framework of IS-LM model for small open economies with floating exchange rate. There is an inverse relationship between the public budget and remittances inflow, liquidity level, volume of deposits, and exchange rate. As a result of the study, the fall in remittances inflows, liquidity level of the banking system, depreciation of the national currency lead to an increase in public revenue. Therefore, the increase in public spending during the crisis period, with the aim of unemployment reduction, may be considered as a crucial policy. The study result allows to policy-makers to exactly know what channels of transmission mechanism transfer the Global crisis on the public budget and its effect on unemployment level of the republic in order to undertake anticrisis macroeconomic policy. The final result of the study indicates that the increase of unemployment level by 1 % requires the increase of public spending by 0.63 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Nargiza Alymkulova & Nurlan Atabaev & Junus Ganiev, 2016. "Var — analysis of global financial economic crisis impact on public budget and unemployment: evidence from the economy of the Kyrgyz republic," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1090-1101.
  • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2016:i:4:p:1090-1101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economyofregion.ru/Data/Issues/ER2016/December_2016/ERDecember2016_1090_1101.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hollmayr, Josef & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 142-162.
    2. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 420-439, June.
    3. Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
    4. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment fiscal multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 531-553, July.
    5. Rendahl, P., 2012. "Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1211, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2007. "Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model," Working Papers 07-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    7. Akıncı, Özge, 2013. "Global financial conditions, country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 358-371.
    8. Kiseok Hong, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Issues in Korea after the Current Crisis," Working Papers id:2982, eSocialSciences.
    9. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    10. Pfaff, Bernhard, 2008. "VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i04).
    11. Jovanovic, Branimir & Petreski, Marjan, 2014. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and labor unions in SEE and the CIS during the financial crisis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 309-332.
    12. Wang, Jiann-Chyuan, 2010. "The strategies adopted by Taiwan in response to the global financial crisis, and Taiwan's role in Asia-Pacific economic integration," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 254-263, December.
    13. Iulia Lupu, 2012. "From the Financial Crisis to the Real Economy: the Main Channels of Transmission through a Theoretical Perspective," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(31), pages 45-50, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global financial economic crisis; public budget; transmission channels; Vector Autoregression; unemployment; economy; Kyrgyz Republic; public spending; public revenue; waves of crisis transmission; IS-LM model;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2016:i:4:p:1090-1101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alexey Naydenov). General contact details of provider: http://www.economyofregion.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.