IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies


  • Josifidis, Kosta
  • Allegret, Jean-Pierre
  • Gimet, Céline
  • Pucar, Emilija Beker


This paper contributes to the literature on monetary policy responses in emerging economies to international financial crises. Such an issue is especially relevant for these countries insofar as they tend to be more unstable than developed countries. In addition, they suffer from larger cumulative output losses that have long-lasting negative effects on growth. If the earlier literature has suggested that emerging countries conduct pro-cyclical policies that exacerbate the impact of shocks, recent findings drawn from the experience of the global financial crisis show that they tend to more frequently adopt counter-cyclical monetary policies. However, even in the last crisis, all countries did not conduct expansionary monetary policies. Among the factors explaining such a behavior, the literature identifies the currency mismatch. This paper is related to this literature. It analyzes monetary policy responses to common financial shocks over the period 1995–2010 for a sample of ten emerging European countries. Emerging Europe has especially suffered from the global financial crisis. Three monetary instruments are analyzed: the nominal short-term interest rate, the real exchange rate, and the foreign exchange reserves. Our empirical methodology used structural Bayesian vector autoregressive (SBVAR) models over two crises periods (1995Q1–2001Q4 and 2002Q1–2010Q4). Our main findings are the following. First, common international financial shocks lead to different monetary policy responses. Second, countries with high currency mismatch ratios suffer from both fear of floating and fear of losing international reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:577-591 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.035

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Selim Elekdag & Harun Alp, 2011. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Turkey During the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/150, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    4. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    5. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 639-687, October.
    6. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    7. de Carvalho Filho Irineu E, 2011. "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-46, July.
    8. Berkmen, S. Pelin & Gelos, Gaston & Rennhack, Robert & Walsh, James P., 2012. "The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 42-59.
    9. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    10. Gimet, Céline & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas, 2011. "A closer look at financial development and income distribution," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1698-1713, July.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299, September.
    12. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    13. Kim, Soyoung, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Policy, and Delayed Overshooting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 775-782, August.
    14. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    15. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion; Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 6, pages 105-129 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Christopher W. Crowe & Jonathan David Ostry & Jun I Kim & Marcos Chamon & Atish R. Ghosh, 2009. "Coping with the Crisis; Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/08, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 4, pages 059-104 Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Aizenman, Joshua & Sun, Yi, 2012. "The financial crisis and sizable international reserves depletion: From ‘fear of floating’ to the ‘fear of losing international reserves’?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 250-269.
    20. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-1599, November.
    21. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2013. "Adjustment mechanisms and exchange rate regimes in 2004 new EU members during the financial crisis," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-17, March.
    22. Wing Hong Chan & Ranjini Jha & Madhu Kalimipalli, 2009. "The Economic Value Of Using Realized Volatility In Forecasting Future Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 231-259.
    23. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    24. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk," IMF Working Papers 10/263, International Monetary Fund.
    25. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 613-633, December.
    26. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    27. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    28. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    29. Brahima Coulibaly, 2012. "Monetary policy in emerging market economies: what lessons from the global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1042, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "On dollarization," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 393-403, July.
    31. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2013. "Can External Shocks Explain the Asian Side of Global Imbalances? Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 85-102, February.
    32. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
    33. Gustavo Adler & Camilo E Tovar Mora, 2012. "Riding Global Financial Waves; The Economic Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/188, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Crisis and recovery: Role of the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 470-488.
    35. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:112-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael M., 2012. "Exchange market pressure and absorption by international reserves: Emerging markets and fear of reserve loss during the 2008–2009 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1076-1091.
    37. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    2. Dahem, Ahlem, 2015. "Short term Bayesian inflation forecasting for Tunisia," MPRA Paper 66702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bala Dahiru Abdullahi, 2016. "Time-Varying VAR with Stochastic Volatility and Monetary Policy Dynamics in Nigeria," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2237-2249.
    4. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    5. Nargiza Alymkulova & Nurlan Atabaev & Junus Ganiev, 2016. "Var — analysis of global financial economic crisis impact on public budget and unemployment: evidence from the economy of the Kyrgyz republic," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1090-1101.

    More about this item


    Financial crises; External shocks; Emerging European countries; Structural Bayesian VAR model;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:577-591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.