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A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

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  • Tornell, Aaron
  • Rancière, Romain
  • Vamvakidis, Athanasios

Abstract

This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks? balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998-2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Tornell, Aaron & Rancière, Romain & Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2011. "A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8250
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    Cited by:

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    2. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    3. Aylin Aslan & Burcu Tunç, 2017. "Measuring the foreign exchange position for the corporate sector: CBRT's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Kátay, Gábor & Péter, Harasztosi, 2017. "Currency Matching and Carry Trade by Non-Financial Corporations," Working Papers 2017-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    5. Nephil Matangi Maskay & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2014. "On Remittances, Foreign Currency Exposure and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Nepal," CESifo Working Paper Series 5053, CESifo.
    6. Juliana Salomao & Liliana Varela, 2022. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 481-514.
    7. Bitar, Joseph, 2021. "Foreign Currency Intermediation: Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Regulation," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    8. Josifidis, Kosta & Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Gimet, Céline & Pucar, Emilija Beker, 2014. "Macroeconomic policy responses to financial crises in emerging European economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 577-591.
    9. Martin Brown & Helmut Stix, 2015. "The euroization of bank deposits in Eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 95-139.
    10. Fischer, Andreas M. & Yeşin, Pınar, 2022. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2022. "Foreign currency loans and credit risk: Evidence from U.S. banks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Kim, Youngju & Lim, Hyunjoon & Yun, Youngjin, 2024. "International transmission of the U.S. dollar liquidity shock: The channel of FX borrowing and lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    13. Ahnert, Toni & Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2021. "Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 145-174.
    14. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    15. Ivanka Petkova, 2011. "Effects of Different Currencies and Exchange Rate Regimes in Post-Yugoslav Countries during the Global Financial and Economic Crisis," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 148-160.
    16. Livia Chitu, 2013. "Was Unofficial Dollarisation/Euroisation an Amplifier of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007–2009 in Emerging Economies?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 233-265, June.
    17. Mirna Dumičić & Vedran Šošić, 2014. "Credit cycles and central bank policy in Croatia: lessons from the 2000s," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 7, pages 96-113, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Martin Tobal, 2018. "Currency Mismatch in the Banking Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 317-364, January.
    19. Martín Tobal, 2014. "Prudential Regulation, Currency Mismatches and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 17, CEMLA.
    20. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    21. Bitar, Joseph, 2021. "The unique dollarization case of Lebanon," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    22. Martín Tobal, 2013. "Currency Mismatch: New Database and Indicators for Latin America and the Caribbean," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 12, CEMLA.
    23. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2017. "The Impact of Institutional Quality on Bank Lending Activity: Evidence from Bayesian Model Averaging," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(5), pages 372-395, October.
    24. Tobal Martín, 2017. "Prudential Regulation, Currency Mismatches and Exchange Rates in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Papers 2017-21, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency mismatch; Emerging economies; Financial crises; Systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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