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Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?

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  • Toni Ahnert
  • Kristin Forbes
  • Christian Friedrich
  • Dennis Reinhardt

Abstract

Can macroprudential foreign exchange (FX) regulations on banks reduce the financial and macroeconomic vulnerabilities created by borrowing in foreign currency? To evaluate the effectiveness and unintended consequences of macroprudential FX regulations, we develop a parsimonious model of bank and market lending in domestic and foreign currency and derive four predictions. We confirm these predictions using a rich dataset of macroprudential FX regulations. These empirical tests show that FX regulations: (1) are effective in terms of reducing borrowing in foreign currency by banks; (2) have the unintended consequence of simultaneously causing firms to increase FX debt issuance; (3) reduce the sensitivity of banks to exchange rate movements, but (4) are less effective at reducing the sensitivity of corporates and the broader financial market to exchange rate movements. As a result, FX regulations on banks appear to be successful in mitigating the vulnerability of banks to exchange rate movements and the global financial cycle, but partially shift the snowbank of FX vulnerability to other sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Toni Ahnert & Kristin Forbes & Christian Friedrich & Dennis Reinhardt, 2018. "Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability?," NBER Working Papers 25083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25083
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    2. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Eugenio M Cerutti & Haonan Zhou, 2018. "Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention of Macroprudential and Capital Control Measures," IMF Working Papers 2018/217, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ahnert, Toni & Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2021. "Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 145-174.
    5. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," BIS Working Papers 839, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2020. "International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 721-763, December.
    7. Lorena Keller, 2018. "Prudential Capital Controls and Risk Misallocation: Bank Lending Channel," 2018 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Ines Buono & Flavia Corneli & Enrica Di Stefano, 2020. "Capital inflows to emerging countries and their sensitivity to the global financial cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1262, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Jia, Pengfei, 2020. "Capital controls and welfare with cross-border bank capital flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Kristin J. Forbes, 2020. "The International Aspects of Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 27698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Manasa Patnam & Adina Popescu & Fabian Valencia & Weijia Yao, 2020. "Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2020/067, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Előd Takáts & Judit Temesvary, 2019. "How does the interaction of macroprudential and monetary policies affect cross-border bank lending?," BIS Working Papers 782, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi, 2018. "Macroprudential Policy with Leakages," NBER Working Papers 25048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Takáts, Előd & Temesvary, Judit, 2020. "The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy: Implementation, Effects, And Lessons," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 17(1), pages 39-71.
    16. Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Mercado, Jr., 2020. "Sectoral Capital Flows: Covariates, Co-movements, and Controls," Working Papers wp42, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, revised Dec 2020.
    17. Markus Eller & Reiner Martin & Helene Schuberth & Lukas Vashold, 2020. "Macroprudential policies in CESEE – an intensity-adjusted approach," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/20, pages 65-81.
    18. Jon Frost & Hiro Ito & René van Stralen, 2020. "The effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls against volatile capital inflows," BIS Working Papers 867, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh K. Verma, 2020. "Cross border flows, financial Intermediation and interactions of policy rules in a small open economy model," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-008, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    20. Coman, Andra & Lloyd, Simon P., 2019. "In the face of spillovers: prudential policies in emerging economies," Working Paper Series 2339, European Central Bank.
    21. Bergant, Katharina & Grigoli, Francesco & Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Sandri, Damiano, 2020. "Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle," Staff Working Papers 20-25, Bank of Canada.

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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