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Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle

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  • Chari, Anusha
  • Dilts-Stedman, Karlye
  • Forbes, Kristin

Abstract

The effects of macroprudential policy on portfolio flows vary considerably across the global financial cycle. A tighter ex-ante macroprudential stance amplifies the impact of global risk shocks on bond and equity flows, increasing outflows significantly more during risk-off episodes and increasing inflows significantly more during risk-on episodes. These amplification effects are more prominent at the “extremes,” especially for extreme risk-off periods and for regulations that target specific risks instead of generalized cyclical buffers. This paper estimates these relationships using a policy-shocks approach that corrects for reverse causality by combining high-frequency risk measures with weekly data on portfolio investment and a new measure of macroprudential regulations that captures the intensity of policy stances. Overall, the results support a growing body of evidence that macroprudential regulation can reduce the volume and volatility of bank flows but shift risks in ways that aggravate vulnerabilities in other parts of the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Chari, Anusha & Dilts-Stedman, Karlye & Forbes, Kristin, 2022. "Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:136:y:2022:i:c:s0022199622000149
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103582
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    3. Ferrero, Andrea & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Leaning against the global financial cycle," Working Paper Series 2763, European Central Bank.
    4. J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop, 2021. "A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle," Globalization Institute Working Papers 410, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Dec 2022.
    5. Katharina Bergant & Kristin Forbes, 2021. "Macroprudential Policy during COVID-19: The Role of Policy Space," NBER Working Papers 29346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Krenz, Johanna & Verma, Akhilesh K, 2023. "A leaky pipeline: Macroprudential policy shocks, non-bank financial intermediation and systemic risk in Europe," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 79, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    7. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2023. "Stress relief? Funding structures and resilience to the covid shock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 47-81.
    9. Fernández-Gallardo, Álvaro & Lloyd, Simon & Manuel, Ed, 2023. "The transmission of macroprudential policy in the tails: evidence from a narrative approach," Bank of England working papers 1027, Bank of England.
    10. Guiting Lin & Alice Y. Ouyang, 2024. "Macroprudential policy leakage: Evidence from shadow banking activities of Chinese enterprises," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 160-182, January.
    11. Yang, Zheng & You, Yu, 2023. "Surges during sudden stops: Substitution effect between sectoral capital inflows in extreme episodes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    12. Bergant, Katharina & Forbes, Kristin, 2023. "Policy packages and policy space: Lessons from COVID-19☆," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Mengtao Chen & Haojie Zhu & Yongming Sun & Ruoxi Jin, 2023. "The impact of housing macroprudential policy on firm innovation: empirical evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Peter Karlström, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Booms, and Banks' Systemic Risk," CEMLA Working Paper Series 03/2023, CEMLA.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; Global financial cycle; Risk shocks; International capital flows; High frequency data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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