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Taper Tantrums: Quantitative Easing, Its Aftermath, and Emerging Market Capital Flows
[Pricing the term structure with linear regressions]

Author

Listed:
  • Anusha Chari
  • Karlye Dilts Stedman
  • Christian Lundblad
  • Andrew Karolyi

Abstract

This paper examines the spillover effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on emerging market capital flows and asset prices. Affine term structure model estimates show that U.S. monetary policy shocks, identified with high-frequency Treasury futures data, represent revisions to expected short-term yields and term premia, especially during the UMP period. The policy shocks exhibit sizable effects on U.S. holdings of emerging market assets. These effects disproportionately manifest through valuation changes versus physical flows, are more pronounced for equity relative to bond markets, and are asymmetric between the quantitative easing and tapering periods, with flows more important during the unwinding.

Suggested Citation

  • Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian Lundblad & Andrew Karolyi, 2021. "Taper Tantrums: Quantitative Easing, Its Aftermath, and Emerging Market Capital Flows [Pricing the term structure with linear regressions]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1445-1508.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:3:p:1445-1508.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa044
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian T. Lundblad, 2020. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," Research Working Paper RWP 20-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Chari, Anusha & Dilts-Stedman, Karlye & Forbes, Kristin, 2022. "Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Nihar Shah, 2022. "Doubly heterogeneous monetary spillovers," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 126-150, August.
    5. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Haas, Adam, 2021. "In search of distress risk in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Yerli, Cigdem & Eksi-Altay, Zehra & Selcuk-Kestel, A. Sevtap, 2023. "On the information content of implied liquidity measure: Evidence from the S&P 500 index options," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Carol Bertaut & Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2023. "Original sin redux: role of duration risk," BIS Working Papers 1109, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    11. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2022. "A natural level of capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Andreas M. Fischer & Dr. Pinar Yesin, 2023. "The kindness of strangers: Brexit and bilateral financial linkages," Working Papers 2023-02, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Zhang, Ziyun & Chen, Su & Li, Bo, 2022. "Does previous carry trade position affect following investors' decision-making and carry returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Nitish R. Sinha & Michael Smolyansky, 2022. "How sensitive is the economy to large interest rate increases? Evidence from the taper tantrum," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Smith, A. Lee & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2023. "The financial market effects of unwinding the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Andrade, Sandro C. & Ekponon, Adelphe & Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2023. "Sovereign risk premia and global macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 172-197.
    17. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2022. "Large international corporate bonds: Investor behavior and firm responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2022. "Surges and instability: The maturity shortening channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    19. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2021. "From taper tantrum to Covid-19: Portfolio flows to emerging markets in periods of stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Miguel Sarmiento, 2022. "Sudden Yield Reversals and Financial Intermediation in Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 1210, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Karau, Sören, 2021. "Monetary policy and Bitcoin," Discussion Papers 41/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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