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The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE

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  • Eller, Markus
  • Hauzenberger, Niko
  • Huber, Florian
  • Schuberth, Helene
  • Vashold, Lukas

Abstract

In line with the recent policy discussion on the use of macroprudential measures to respond to cross-border risks arising from capital flows, this paper tries to quantify to what extent macroprudential policies (MPPs) have been able to stabilize capital flows in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) – a region that experienced a substantial boom-bust cycle in capital flows amid the global financial crisis and where policymakers had been quite active in adopting MPPs already before that crisis. To study the dynamic responses of capital flows to MPP shocks, we propose a novel regime-switching factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model. It allows to capture potential structural breaks in the policy regime and to control – besides domestic macroeconomic quantities – for the impact of global factors such as the global financial cycle. Feeding into this model a novel intensity-adjusted macroprudential policy index, we find that tighter MPPs may be effective in containing domestic private sector credit growth and the volumes of gross capital inflows in a majority of the countries analyzed. However, they do not seem to generally shield CESEE countries from capital flow volatility. JEL Classification: C38, E61, F44, G28

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  • Eller, Markus & Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene & Vashold, Lukas, 2021. "The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE," ESRB Working Paper Series 118, European Systemic Risk Board.
  • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:2021118
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    4. Martin Feldkircher & Helene Schuberth, 2023. "Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 859-893, August.

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    Keywords

    capital flows; CESEE; global factors; macroprudential policy; regime-switching FAVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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