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Vulnerable Growth

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  • Tobias Adrian
  • Nina Boyarchenko
  • Domenico Giannone

Abstract

We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time. Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth vulnerability dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:109:y:2019:i:4:p:1263-89
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161923
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Possible pitfalls of a 1-in-X approach to financial stability
      by BankUnderground in Bank Underground on 2020-02-06 09:00:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Divya Kirti, 2018. "Lending Standards and Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 2018/023, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Marek Raczko, 2018. "Measuring financial cycle time," BIS Working Papers 755, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    4. Richard K. Crump & Domenico Giannone & Sean Hundtofte, 2018. "Changing Risk-Return Profiles," Liberty Street Economics 20181004, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Claudia Pacella, 2020. "Essays on Forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/307579, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    7. Michael T. Kiley, 2018. "Unemployment Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 28 Sep 2018.
    8. N. V. Suvorov & S. V. Treshchina & Yu. V. Beletskii, 2020. "Design of Methods for Long-Term Forecasting of Development Trends in the Russian Economy (Methodology and Model Toolkit)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 636-646, November.
    9. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Burgess, Stephen & Galletly, Richard & Levina, Iren & O'Neill, Cian & Varadi, Alexandra, 2018. "Measuring risks to UK financial stability," Bank of England working papers 738, Bank of England.
    10. Dominic Anene & Stefania D'Amico, 2017. "A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series WP-2017-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Thibaut Duprey, 2018. "Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-6, Bank of Canada.
    12. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    13. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What anchors for the natural rate of interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2018.
    14. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "How do policies influence GDP tail risks?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1339, OECD Publishing.
    15. Isabel Cairo & Jae Sim, 2017. "Income Inequality, Financial Crises and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 1433, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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