IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v129y2018i1p1-23.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Term structures of asset prices and returns

Author

Listed:
  • Backus, David
  • Boyarchenko, Nina
  • Chernov, Mikhail

Abstract

We explore the term structures of claims to a variety of cash flows, namely, US government bonds (claims to dollars), foreign government bonds (claims to foreign currency), inflation-adjusted bonds (claims to the price index), and equity (claims to future equity indexes or dividends). The average term structures reflect the dynamics of the dollar pricing kernel, cash flow growth, and the interaction between the two. We use an affine model to illustrate how these two components can deliver term structures with a wide range of levels and shapes. Finally, we calibrate a representative agent economy to show that the evidence is consistent with the equilibrium models.

Suggested Citation

  • Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:129:y:2018:i:1:p:1-23
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X18300990
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    2. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
    3. Jules van Binsbergen & Michael Brandt & Ralph Koijen, 2012. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1596-1618, June.
    4. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    5. Longstaff, Francis A. & Piazzesi, Monika, 2004. "Corporate earnings and the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 401-421, December.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    7. Lars Peter Hansen & José A. Scheinkman, 2009. "Long-Term Risk: An Operator Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 177-234, January.
    8. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
      • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February.
    11. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Consumption Risk Premia in the Cross Section of Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1529-1566, August.
    12. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    13. Cochrane, John H, 1992. "Explaining the Variance of Price-Dividend Ratios," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 243-280.
    14. Jaroslav Borovička & Lars Peter Hansen & José A. Scheinkman, 2016. "Misspecified Recovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2493-2544, December.
    15. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2014. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 51-99, February.
    16. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    17. Ian W. Martin, 2013. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 745-773.
    18. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    19. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
    20. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    21. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
    22. Dew-Becker, Ian & Giglio, Stefano & Le, Anh & Rodriguez, Marius, 2017. "The price of variance risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 225-250.
    23. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    24. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Colacito, Riccardo, 2013. "The Term Structures of Co-entropy in International Financial Markets," Working Paper Series 2013-17, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    25. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, April.
    26. Santos, Tano & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Habit formation, the cross section of stock returns and the cash-flow risk puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 385-413, November.
    27. Hanno Lustig & Andreas Stathopoulos & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 19623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    29. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Mark Gertler & Kenneth Rogoff (ed.), 2006. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572346, December.
    31. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2015. "Editor's Choice Very Long-Run Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 1-53.
    32. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    33. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:1-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
    35. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    36. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
    37. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
    38. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
    39. Mark Gertler & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gert06-1, July.
    40. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.
    41. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    42. Frederico Belo & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2015. "Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 1115-1160, June.
    43. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
    44. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    45. Fernando Alvarez & Urban J. Jermann, 2005. "Using Asset Prices to Measure the Persistence of the Marginal Utility of Wealth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1977-2016, November.
    46. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    47. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    48. Bansal, Ravi & Lehmann, Bruce N., 1997. "Growth-Optimal Portfolio Restrictions On Asset Pricing Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 333-354, June.
    49. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2017. "Long‐Term Risk: A Martingale Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 299-312, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Risk on Macrofinance Models," 2017 Meeting Papers 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Mikhail Chernov & Drew Creal, 2023. "International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 209-245, February.
    3. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    4. Jiang, Zhengyang & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Xiaolan, Mindy Z., 2020. "Manufacturing Risk-Free Government Debt," Research Papers 3882, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    5. Andrés Schneider, 2022. "Risk‐Sharing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2331-2374, August.
    6. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    7. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    8. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Riccardo Colacito, 2019. "The Term Structures of Coentropy in International Financial Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3541-3558, August.
    9. A. Ronald Gallant & George Tauchen, 2021. "Cash Flows Discounted Using a Model-Free SDF Extracted under a Yield Curve Prior," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
    12. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2016. "The Long Bond, Long Forward Measure and Long-Term Factorization in Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Papers 1610.00818, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    13. Lloyd, S. P. & Marin, E. A., 2019. "Exchange Rate Risk and Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1996, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2016. "Long-Term Factorization of Affine Pricing Kernels," Papers 1610.00778, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    15. Indrajit Mitra & Yu Xu, 2020. "Limited Household Risk Sharing: General Equilibrium Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    16. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2018. "Long-term factorization in Heath–Jarrow–Morton models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 621-641, July.
    17. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nguyen, Thong Trung, 2020. "“Small things matter most”: The spillover effects in the cryptocurrency market and gold as a silver bullet," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Chen, Dongxu & Wu, Ke & Zhu, Yifeng, 2022. "Stock return asymmetry in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.
    20. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky & Yutian Nie, 2016. "Long Forward Probabilities, Recovery and the Term Structure of Bond Risk Premiums," Papers 1601.06477, arXiv.org.
    21. Irina Zviadadze, 2021. "Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns [Stock returns and volatility: Pricing the short-run and long-run components of market risk]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 6032-6086.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley Zin, 2014. "Sources of Entropy in Representative Agent Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 51-99, February.
    2. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    3. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Working Papers 2020:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    5. Roberto Marfè, 2017. "Income Insurance and the Equilibrium Term Structure of Equity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(5), pages 2073-2130, October.
    6. Pier dup Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2015. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Variance Bounds on the Permanent and Transitory Components of Stochastic Discount Factors," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    8. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    9. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    10. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Risk Pricing over Alternative Investment Horizons," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1571-1611, Elsevier.
    11. Croce, Mariano & Ai, Hengjie & Li, Kai & Diercks, Anthony, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 12661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Irina Zviadadze, 2021. "Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns [Stock returns and volatility: Pricing the short-run and long-run components of market risk]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 6032-6086.
    13. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    14. Roberto Marfè, 2016. "Labor Rigidity, In ation Risk and Bond Returns," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 461, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    15. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Michael Hasler & Mariana Khapko & Roberto Marfè, 2020. "Rational Learning and the Term Structures of Value and Growth Risk Premia," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 622, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    17. Pierlauro Lopez, 2016. "Welfare Implications of the Term Structure of Returns: Should Central Banks Fill Gaps or Remove Volatility?," 2016 Meeting Papers 742, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
    19. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    20. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Entropy; Coentropy; Term structure; Yields; Excess returns; Affine models; Recursive preferences; Disasters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:129:y:2018:i:1:p:1-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.