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On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends

  • Jules H. van Binsbergen

    (Northwestern Kellogg, Stanford GSB, and NBER)

  • Michael W. Brandt

    (Duke University and NBER)

  • Ralph S.J. Koijen

    (Chicago Booth and NBER)

We recover prices of dividend strips on the aggregate stock market using data from derivatives markets. The price of a k-year dividend strip is the present value of the dividend paid in k years. The value of the stock market is the sum of all dividend strip prices across maturities. We study the properties of strips and find that expected returns, Sharpe ratios, and volatilities on short-term strips are higher than on the aggregate stock market, while their CAPM betas are well below one. Short-term strip prices are more volatile than their realizations, leading to excess volatility and return predictability.

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Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 11-13.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation:
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Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1113
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch

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  1. Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2007. "Predictable Returns and Asset Allocation: Should a Skeptical Investor Time the Market?," NBER Working Papers 13165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," NBER Working Papers 12109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel & Jay Shanken, 2006. "A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests," NBER Working Papers 12360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  7. Jaroslav Borovička & Mark Hendricks & José A. Scheinkman, 2011. "Risk-Price Dynamics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 3-65, Winter.
    • Jaroslav Borovička & Lars Peter Hansen & Mark Hendricks & José A. Scheinkman, 2009. "Risk Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 15506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lars Peter Hansen & Jaroslav BoroviÄka & Mark Hendricks & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2010. "Risk Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2010-004, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  8. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jessica A. Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 175-206, December.
  10. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2008. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," NBER Working Papers 14544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," CEPR Discussion Papers 9022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  13. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," NBER Working Papers 15688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "Long Run Risk, the Wealth-Consumption Ratio, and the Temporal Pricing of Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 552-56, May.
  15. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 16810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Mariano M. Croce & Marin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2006. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration fo Risky Assets," 2006 Meeting Papers 628, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Richard Priestley, 2012. "Dividend Smoothing and Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1834-1853, October.
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