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On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends

  • Jules van Binsbergen
  • Michael Brandt
  • Ralph Koijen

We present evidence on the term structure of the equity premium. We recover prices of dividend strips, which are short-term assets that pay dividends on the stock index every period up to period T and nothing thereafter. It is short-term relative to the index because the index pays dividends in perpetuity. We find that expected returns, Sharpe ratios, and volatilities on short-term assets are higher than on the index, while their CAPM betas are below one. Short-term assets are more volatile than their realizations, leading to excess volatility and return predictability. Our findings are inconsistent with many leading theories.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 102 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (June)
Pages: 1596-1618

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:4:p:1596-1618
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  1. Jonathan Lewellen & Stefan Nagel & Jay Shanken, 2006. "A Skeptical Appraisal of Asset-Pricing Tests," NBER Working Papers 12360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 16810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jessica A. Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 175-206, December.
  5. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
  6. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  7. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "Long Run Risk, the Wealth-Consumption Ratio, and the Temporal Pricing of Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 552-56, May.
  8. Koijen, Ralph & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  10. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Richard Priestley, 2012. "Dividend Smoothing and Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1834-1853, October.
  11. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
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  14. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2009. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1247-1277, March.
  15. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  17. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
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