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Habit formation, the cross section of stock returns and the cash-flow risk puzzle

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  • Santos, Tano
  • Veronesi, Pietro

Abstract

Non-linear external habit persistence models, which feature prominently in the recent "equity premium" asset pricing and macroeconomics literature, generate counterfactual predictions in the cross-section of stock returns. In particular, we show that in the absence of cross-sectional heterogeneity in firms' cash-flow risk, these models produce a "growth premium," that is, stocks with high price-to-fundamental ratios command a higher premium than stocks with low price-to-fundamental ratios. This implication is at odds with the well-established empirical observation of a "value premium" in the cross-section of stock returns. Substantial heterogeneity in firms' cash-flow risk yields both a value premium as well as most of the stylized facts about the cross-section of stock returns, but it generates a "cash-flow risk puzzle": Quantitatively, value stocks have to have "too much" cash-flow risk compared to the data to generate empirically plausible value premiums.

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  • Santos, Tano & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Habit formation, the cross section of stock returns and the cash-flow risk puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 385-413, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:98:y:2010:i:2:p:385-413
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    Cited by:

    1. Auer, Benjamin R., 2013. "Can habit formation under complete market integration explain the cross-section of international equity risk premia?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 61-67.
    2. Fukuta, Yuichi & Yamane, Akiko, 2015. "Value premium and implied equity duration in the Japanese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 102-121.
    3. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    4. Paravisini, Daniel & Rappoport, Veronica & Ravina, Enrichetta, 2017. "Risk aversion and wealth: evidence from person-to-person lending portfolios," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62137, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
    6. Guasoni, Paolo & Huberman, Gur & Ren, Dan, 2014. "Shortfall Aversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 10064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Chen, Andrew Y., 2014. "Precautionary Volatility and Asset Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Carmine Trecroci, 2012. "Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Multifactor Loadings and Pricing Errors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2453-2463.
    9. Lilian de Castro Medeiros & Aureliano Angel Bressan, 2015. "Value Premium and Country Risk as Dimensions to Estimate Conditional Returns: a Study of the Brazilian Market," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 12(3), pages 67-90, May.
    10. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2012. "Variance bounds on the permanent and transitory components of stochastic discount factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 191-208.
    11. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    12. repec:oup:revfin:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:945-985. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Herskovic, Bernard & Kelly, Bryan & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2016. "The common factor in idiosyncratic volatility: Quantitative asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 249-283.
    15. Tyler Abbot, 2017. "Heterogeneous Preferences, Constraints, and the Cyclicality of Leverage," Papers 1706.05877, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    16. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
    17. Anthony M. Diercks & William Waller, 2017. "Taxes and the Fed : Theory and Evidence from Equities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Bach, Christian & Møller, Stig V., 2011. "Habit-based asset pricing with limited participation consumption," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2891-2901, November.
    19. Hansen, Simon Lysbjerg, 2015. "Cross-sectional asset pricing with heterogeneous preferences and beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 125-151.
    20. Pohl, Walter & Schmedders, Karl & Wilms, Ole, 2016. "Asset prices with non-permanent shocks to consumption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 152-178.
    21. Chen, Andrew Y., 2014. "Habit, Production, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-103, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.

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