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The Term Structure of Returns: Facts and Theory

Listed author(s):
  • Jules H. van Binsbergen
  • Ralph S.J. Koijen

We summarize and extend the new literature on the term structure of equity. Short-term equity claims, or dividend strips, have on average significantly higher returns than the aggregate stock market. The returns on short-term dividend claims are risky as measured by volatility, but safe as measured by market beta. These facts are hard to reconcile with traditional macro-finance models and we provide an overview of new models that can reproduce some of these facts. We relate our evidence on dividend strips to facts about other asset classes such as nominal and corporate bonds, volatility, and housing. We conclude by discussing the broader economic implications by linking the term structure of returns to real economic decisions such as hiring and investment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 21234.

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Date of creation: Jun 2015
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21234
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  9. repec:hrv:faseco:33192198 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
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  15. Florian Schulz, 2016. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3185-3223, October.
  16. Andries, Marianne & Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Schmalz, Martin C., 2014. "Horizon-dependent risk aversion and the timing and pricing of uncertainty," Staff Reports 703, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Mar 2017.
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