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No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets

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  • Stefano Giglio
  • Matteo Maggiori
  • Johannes Stroebel

Abstract

We test for the existence of housing bubbles associated with a failure of the transversality condition that requires the present value of payments occurring infinitely far in the future to be zero. The most prominent such bubble is the classic rational bubble. We study housing markets in the United Kingdom and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are finite‐maturity, pre‐paid, and tradeable ownership contracts with maturities often exceeding 700 years. Freeholds are infinite‐maturity ownership contracts. The price difference between leaseholds with extremely‐long maturities and freeholds reflects the present value of a claim to the freehold after leasehold expiry, and is thus a direct empirical measure of the transversality condition. We estimate this price difference, and find no evidence of failures of the transversality condition in housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, even during periods when a sizable bubble was regularly thought to be present.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:84:y:2016:i::p:1047-1091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    2. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:293-311 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:jfinec:v:126:y:2017:i:1:p:147-170 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Giglio, Stefano & Maggiori, Matteo & Stroebel, Johannes, 2014. "Very long-run discount rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Edward L. Glaeser & Charles G. Nathanson, 2014. "Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 20426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2015. "An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics," Working Paper Series rwp15-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    7. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:273-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Charles G. Nathanson & Eric Zwick, 2017. "Arrested Development: Theory and Evidence of Supply-Side Speculation in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 23030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:276-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Daniel Andrei & Bruce I. Carlin, 2017. "Asset Pricing in the Quest for the New El Dorado," NBER Working Papers 23455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2015. "Housing Bubbles," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    12. Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2015. "An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics," 2015 Meeting Papers 1108, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Edward L. Glaeser & Charles G. Nathanson, 2015. "An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 21037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hamidi Sahneh, Mehdi, 2017. "News, Noise, and Tests of Present Value Models," MPRA Paper 82715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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