IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Very long-run discount rates

  • Giglio, Stefano

    (University of Chicago and NBER)

  • Maggiori, Matteo

    (New York University; NBER & CEPR)

  • Stroebel, Johannes

    (New York University)

We provide direct estimates of how agents trade off immediate costs and uncertain future benefits that occur in the very long run, 100 or more years away. We exploit a unique feature of housing markets in the U.K. and Singapore, where residential property ownership takes the form of either leaseholds or freeholds. Leaseholds are temporary, pre-paid, and tradable ownership contracts with maturities between 99 and 999 years, while freeholds are perpetual ownership contracts. The difference between leasehold and freehold prices reflects the present value of perpetual rental income starting at leasehold expiry, and is thus informative about very long-run discount rates. We estimate the price discounts for varying leasehold maturities compared to freeholds and extremely long-run leaseholds via hedonic regressions using proprietary datasets of the universe of transactions in each country. Agents discount very long-run cash flows at low rates, assigning high present values to cash flows hundreds of years in the future. For example, 100-year leaseholds are valued at more than 10% less than otherwise identical freeholds, implying discount rates below 2.6% for 100-year claims. Given the riskiness of rents, this suggests that both long-run riskfree discount rates and long-run risk premia are low. We show how the estimated very long-run discount rates are informative for climate change policy.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2014/0182.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 182.

as
in new window

Length: 156 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:182
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dallasfed.org/Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, 04.
  2. Antonia Diaz & Maria Jose Luengo Prado, 2008. "On the User Cost and Homeownership," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 584-613, July.
  3. Stefano Giglio & Ian Dew-Becker, 2013. "Asset pricing in the frequency domain: theory and empirics," 2013 Meeting Papers 1244, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Selale Tuzel, 2006. "Housing, Consumption, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 12036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Shiller Robert J., 2006. "Long-Term Perspectives on the Current Boom in Home Prices," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-11, March.
  6. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1630, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2007.
  7. Martin L. Weitzman, 2013. "Tail-Hedge Discounting and the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 873-82, September.
  8. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Martin C. Schmalz, 2013. "Up close it feels dangerous: 'anxiety' in the face of risk," Staff Reports 610, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica, 2005. "Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-based Explanation of the Value Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 4921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Environmental Protection, Rare Disasters, and Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 19258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Stephen Malpezzi & Larry Ozanne & Thomas G. Thibodeau, 1987. "Microeconomic Estimates of Housing Depreciation," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 63(4), pages 372-385.
  13. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Karsten Jeske & Dirk Krueger & Kurt Mitman, 2011. "Housing and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Bailout Guarantees for Government Sponsored Enterprises," NBER Working Papers 17537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, 06.
  16. Thomas J. Sargent & LarsPeter Hansen, 2001. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 60-66, May.
  17. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2010. "The measurement of rent inflation," Staff Reports 425, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  18. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  20. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
  21. Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri & David Pearce, 2005. "Declining Discount Rates: The Long and the Short of it," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(4), pages 445-493, December.
  22. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Francke, Marc, 2013. "The historical development of the Swiss rental market – A new price index," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-145.
  23. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2014. "No-Bubble Condition: Model-free Tests in Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 20154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
  25. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
  26. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:477-491 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, 1992. "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 457-485.
  28. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2012. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 18128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Robert Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2557, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2007.
  30. Brent W. Ambrose & Piet Eichholtz & Thies Lindenthal, 2013. "House Prices and Fundamentals: 355 Years of Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 477-491, 03.
  31. Nigel Stapledon, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in S ydney and M elbourne House Prices from 1880 to 2011," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52(3), pages 293-317, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.