IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aei/rpaper/16021.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen D. Oliner

    (American Enterprise Institute)

  • Joseph B. Nichols

    (American Enterprise Institute)

  • Michael R. Mulhall

Abstract

We use a large dataset of land sales dating back to the mid-1990s to construct land price indexes for 23 MSAs in the United States and for the aggregate of those MSAs. The price indexes show a dramatic increase in both commercial and residential land prices over several years prior to their peak in 2006-07 and a steep descent since then. These fluctuations have exceeded those in well-known indexes of home prices and commercial real estate prices. Because those indexes price a bundle of land and structures, this comparison implies that land prices have been more volatile than structures prices over this period. This result is a key element of the land leverage hypothesis, which holds that home prices and commercial property prices will be more volatile, all else equal, in areas where land represents a larger share of real estate value.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen D. Oliner & Joseph B. Nichols & Michael R. Mulhall, 2012. "Swings in commercial and residential land prices in the United States," AEI Economics Working Papers 16021, American Enterprise Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:aei:rpaper:16021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aei.org/publication/swings-in-commercial-and-residential-land-prices-in-the-united-states
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Munneke, Henry J., 2005. "Dynamics of the urban zoning structure: An empirical investigation of zoning change," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 455-473, November.
    2. Giuliano, Genevieve & Small, Kenneth A., 1991. "Subcenters in the Los Angeles region," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 163-182, July.
    3. Raymond W. Goldsmith, 1951. "A Perpetual Inventory of National Wealth," NBER Chapters,in: Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 14, pages 5-73 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    5. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    6. McMillen, Daniel P. & McDonald, John F., 1998. "Suburban Subcenters and Employment Density in Metropolitan Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 157-180, March.
    7. Munneke, Henry J & Slade, Barrett A, 2000. "An Empirical Study of Sample-Selection Bias in Indices of Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 45-64, July.
    8. Ihlanfeldt, Keith & Mayock, Tom, 2010. "Panel data estimates of the effects of different types of crime on housing prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2-3), pages 161-172, May.
    9. Bourassa, Steven C. & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato & Zhang, Sumei, 2011. "Land leverage and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 134-144, March.
    10. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    11. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    12. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2009-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Alex Anas & Richard Arnott & Kenneth A. Small, 1998. "Urban Spatial Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1426-1464, September.
    14. Gatzlaff, Dean H & Haurin, Donald R, 1997. "Sample Selection Bias and Repeat-Sales Index Estimates," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 33-50, Jan.-Marc.
    15. David Albouy & Gabriel Ehrlich, 2012. "Housing Productivity and the Social Cost of Land-Use Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 18110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Mikhed, Vyacheslav & Zemcík, Petr, 2009. "Do house prices reflect fundamentals? Aggregate and panel data evidence," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 140-149, June.
    17. Petr Zemcik & Vyacheslav Mikhed, 2009. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," ERES eres2009_275, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    18. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2008. "Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 117-137, June.
    19. Davis, Morris A., 2009. "The price and quantity of land by legal form of organization in the United States," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 350-359, May.
    20. Henry J. Munneke & Barrett A. Slade, 2001. "A Metropolitan Transaction-Based Commercial Price Index: A Time-Varying Parameter Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 55-84.
    21. Kevin A. Bryan & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2009. "Semiparametric estimation of land price gradients using large data sets," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 53-74.
    22. Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2006. "Construction Costs And The Supply Of Housing Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 661-680.
    23. Davis, Morris A. & Palumbo, Michael G., 2008. "The price of residential land in large US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 352-384, January.
    24. Seung Jung Lee & Jonathan D. Rose, 2010. "Profits and balance sheet developments at U.S. commercial banks in 2009," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue May, pages 1-37.
    25. Colwell, Peter F. & Munneke, Henry J., 1997. "The Structure of Urban Land Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 321-336, May.
    26. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    27. Colwell, Peter F, 1998. "A Primer on Piecewise Parabolic Multiple Regression Analysis via Estimations of Chicago CBD Land Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 87-97, July.
    28. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
    29. Steven C. Bourassa & Donald R. Haurin & Jessica L. Haurin & Martin Hoesli & Jian Sun, 2009. "House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 259-278.
    30. Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Housing Supply," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 295-318, May.
    31. Karl L. Guntermann & Gareth Thomas, 2005. "Parcel Size, Location and Commercial Land Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 27(3), pages 343-354.
    32. G. Donald Jud & Terry G. Seaks, 1994. "Sample Selection Bias in Estimating Housing Sales Prices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 289-298.
    33. Clapp, John M. & Nanda, Anupam & Ross, Stephen L., 2008. "Which school attributes matter? The influence of school district performance and demographic composition on property values," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-466, March.
    34. Raphael W. Bostic & Stanley D. Longhofer & Christian L. Redfearn, 2007. "Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-208, June.
    35. Schulz, Rainer & Werwatz, Axel, 2011. "Is there an equilibrating relationship between house prices and replacement cost? Empirical evidence from Berlin," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 288-302, May.
    36. Christopher Mayer, 2011. "Housing Bubbles: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 559-577, September.
    37. Craig, Steven G. & Ng, Pin T., 2001. "Using Quantile Smoothing Splines to Identify Employment Subcenters in a Multicentric Urban Area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 100-120, January.
    38. Sivitanidou, Rena, 1996. "Do Office-Commercial Firms Value Access to Service Employment Centers? A Hedonic Value Analysis within Polycentric Los Angeles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 125-149, September.
    39. Clark, Steven P. & Coggin, T. Daniel, 2011. "Was there a U.S. house price bubble? An econometric analysis using national and regional panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 189-200, May.
    40. Glaeser, Edward L., 2008. "Cities, Agglomeration, and Spatial Equilibrium," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290444.
    41. McMillen, Daniel P. & Smith, Stefani C., 2003. "The number of subcenters in large urban areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 321-338, May.
    42. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January.
    43. John Ries & Tsur Somerville, 2010. "School Quality and Residential Property Values: Evidence from Vancouver Rezoning," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 928-944, November.
    44. Daniel P. McMillen & John F. McDonald, 2002. "Land Values In A Newly Zoned City," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 62-72, February.
    45. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 1999. "Residential Buildings And The Cost Of Construction: New Evidence On The Efficiency Of The Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 288-302, May.
    46. Brasington, David M. & Haurin, Donald R., 2009. "Parents, peers, or school inputs: Which components of school outcomes are capitalized into house value?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 523-529, September.
    47. Rosenthal Stuart S. & Helsley Robert W., 1994. "Redevelopment and the Urban Land Price Gradient," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 182-200, March.
    48. McMillen, Daniel P. & McDonald, John F., 1991. "A simultaneous equations model of zoning and land values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 55-72, May.
    49. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2007. "The effect of land use regulation on housing and land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 420-435, May.
    50. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
    51. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March.
    52. Redfearn, Christian L., 2007. "The topography of metropolitan employment: Identifying centers of employment in a polycentric urban area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 519-541, May.
    53. Brownstone, David & De Vany, Arthur, 1991. "Zoning, Returns to Scale, and the Value of Undeveloped Land," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 699-704, November.
    54. Andrew F. Haughwout & James A. Orr & David Bedoll, 2008. "The price of land in the New York metropolitan area," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Apr).
    55. Kowalski, Joseph G. & Paraskevopoulos, Christos C., 1990. "The impact of location on urban industrial land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 16-24, January.
    56. Peiser, Richard B., 1987. "The determinants of nonresidential urban land values," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 340-360, November.
    57. Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz & Anita Summers, 2008. "A New Measure of the Local Regulatory Environment for Housing Markets: The Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(3), pages 693-729, March.
    58. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    59. Coleman IV, Major & LaCour-Little, Michael & Vandell, Kerry D., 2008. "Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 272-290, December.
    60. JPeter F. Colwell & Henry J. Munneke, 2003. "Estimating a Price Surface for Vacant Land in an Urban Area," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(1), pages 15-28.
    61. Pogodzinski, J. M. & Sass, Tim R., 1994. "The theory and estimation of endogenous zoning," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 601-630, October.
    62. Richard Voith, 2001. "How responsive is the demand for residential land to changes in its price?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 33-40.
    63. Pope, Jaren C., 2008. "Fear of crime and housing prices: Household reactions to sex offender registries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 601-614, November.
    64. Wallace, Nancy E., 1988. "The market effects of zoning undeveloped land: Does zoning follow the market?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 307-326, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jing Wu & Joseph Gyourko & Yongheng Deng, 2013. "Is There Evidence of a Real Estate Collateral Channel Effect on Listed Firm Investment in China?," NBER Working Papers 18762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Liu, Crocker H. & Nowak, Adam & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2016. "Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 55-72.
    3. repec:eee:regeco:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:69-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Liu, Zheng & Miao, Jianjun & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Land prices and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-105.
    5. Richard Arnott & Huiling Zhang, 2015. "The Aggregate Value of Land in the Greater Los Angeles Region," Working Papers 201506, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    6. Kok, Nils & Monkkonen, Paavo & Quigley, John M., 2014. "Land use regulations and the value of land and housing: An intra-metropolitan analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-148.
    7. Gyourko, Joseph & Molloy, Raven, 2015. "Regulation and Housing Supply," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    8. Burge, Gregory, 2014. "The capitalization effects of school, residential, and commercial impact fees on undeveloped land values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2015. "Losing track of the asset markets: the case of housing and stock," ISER Discussion Paper 0932, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. repec:eee:regeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:224-246 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    12. repec:eee:regeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:190-203 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Giglio, Stefano & Maggiori, Matteo & Stroebel, Johannes, 2014. "Very long-run discount rates," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Joseph Nichols & Anthony Sanders, 2013. "Local Traits and Securitized Commercial Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 787-813, November.
    15. GLUMAC Brano & HERRERA-GOMEZ Marcos & LICHERON Julien, 2018. "A residential land price index for Luxembourg: Dealing with the spatial dimension," LISER Working Paper Series 2018-07, LISER.
    16. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Coughlin, Cletus C. & Clapp, John M., 2015. "Local Polynomial Regressions versus OLS for Generating Location Value Estimates: Which is More Efficient in Out-of-Sample Forecasts?," Working Papers 2015-14, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 29 Oct 2015.
    17. William Larson, 2015. "New Estimates of Value of Land of the United States," BEA Working Papers 0120, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    18. Qin, Yu & Zhu, Hongjia & Zhu, Rong, 2016. "Changes in the distribution of land prices in urban China during 2007–2012," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-90.
    19. repec:kap:jrefec:v:54:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9570-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Philippas, Nikolaos & Economou, Fotini & Babalos, Vassilios & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2013. "Herding behavior in REITs: Novel tests and the role of financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 166-174.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate; Housing Center: Research;

    JEL classification:

    • A - General Economics and Teaching

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aei:rpaper:16021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dave Adams, CIO). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aeiiius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.