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Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy

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  • Jerry Tsai
  • Jessica A. Wachter

Abstract

Why do value stocks have higher average returns than growth stocks, despite having lower risk? Why do these stocks exhibit positive abnormal performance while growth stocks exhibit negative abnormal performance? This paper offers a rare-events based explanation that can also account for the high equity premium and volatility of the aggregate market. The model explains other puzzling aspects of the data such as joint patterns in time series predictablity of aggregate market and value and growth returns, long periods in which growth outperforms value, and the association between positive skewness and low realized returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2014. "Rare Booms and Disasters in a Multi-sector Endowment Economy," NBER Working Papers 20062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20062
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    2. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Larry G. Epstein & Emmanuel Farhi & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2680-2697, September.
    4. Lanfear, Matthew G. & Lioui, Abraham & Siebert, Mark G., 2019. "Market anomalies and disaster risk: Evidence from extreme weather events," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    5. Mete Kilic & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2019. "Good and Bad Variance Premia and Expected Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2522-2544, June.
    6. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    7. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakoš, 2015. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications For Consumption and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1053-1104.
    8. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Disaster Risk: Joint Implications for Consumption and Asset Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp507, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    9. Riccardo Colacito & Eric Ghysels & Jinghan Meng & Wasin Siwasarit, 2016. "Skewness in Expected Macro Fundamentals and the Predictability of Equity Returns: Evidence and Theory," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2069-2109.
    10. Branger, Nicole & Konermann, Patrick & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian, 2018. "Equilibrium asset pricing in directed networks," Discussion Papers 37/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Bo Liu & Yingjie Niu & Jinqiang Yang & Zhentao Zou, 2020. "Time‐varying risk of rare disasters, investment, and asset pricing," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 503-524, August.
    12. George P. Gao & Xiaomeng Lu & Zhaogang Song, 2019. "Tail Risk Concerns Everywhere," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 3111-3130, July.
    13. Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2021. "Revisiting the Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Tunisia: Carbon Dioxide vs. Ecological Footprint," Working Papers 202171, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Tsai, Jerry & Wachter, Jessica A., 2018. "Pricing long-lived securities in dynamic endowment economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 848-878.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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