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The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Lustig, Hanno

    (Stanford University)

  • Stathopoulos, Andreas

    (University of Washington)

  • Verdelhan, Adrien

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Fixing the investment horizon, the returns to currency carry trades decrease as the maturity of the foreign bonds increases, because the local currency term premia offset the currency risk premia. The time series predictability of foreign bond returns in dollars similarly declines as the maturity of the bonds increases. Leading no-arbitrage models in international finance cannot match the downward term structure of currency carry trade risk premia. While currency risk premia on short-term bonds reflect differences in transitory and permanent risk, we show that the premia on long-term bonds only reflect differences in the risk of permanent shocks to investors' marginal utility.

Suggested Citation

  • Lustig, Hanno & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2017. "The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia," Research Papers repec:ecl:stabus:3411, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:repec:ecl:stabus:3411
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Consumption Risk Premia in the Cross Section of Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1529-1566, August.
    2. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Chernov, Mikhail & Lochstoer, Lars & Lundeby, Stig, 2018. "Conditional dynamics and the multi-horizon risk-return trade-off," CEPR Discussion Papers 13365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Thomas Eisenbach & Martin Schmalz & Marianne Andries, 2015. "Asset Pricing with Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion," 2015 Meeting Papers 1069, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. S. Mouabbi, 2014. "An arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model with stochastic volatility for the determination of currency risk premia," Working papers 527, Banque de France.
    6. Marianne Andries & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Martin C. Schmalz, 2014. "Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion and the Timing and Pricing of Uncertainty," Staff Reports 703, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Mantzura, Ariel & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2019. "Predicting foreign investors’ carry trade activity in the Israeli FX market using a time-varying currency risk premium approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 438-457.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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