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Risk Pricing over Alternative Investment Horizons

In: Handbook of the Economics of Finance

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  • Hansen, Lars Peter

Abstract

I explore methods that characterize model-based valuation of stochastically growing cash flows. Following previous research, I use stochastic discount factors as a convenient device to depict asset values. I extend that literature by focusing on the impact of compounding these discount factors over alternative investment horizons. In modeling cash flows, I also incorporate stochastic growth factors. I explore dynamic value decomposition (DVD) methods that capture concurrent compounding of a stochastic growth and discount factors in determining risk-adjusted values. These methods are supported by factorizations that extract martingale components of stochastic growth and discount factors. These components reveal which ingredients of a model have long-term implications for valuation. The resulting martingales imply convenient changes in measure that are distinct from those used in mathematical finance, and they provide the foundations for analyzing model-based implications for the term structure of risk prices. As an illustration of the methods, I re-examine some recent preference based models. I also use the martingale extraction to revisit the value implications of some benchmark models with market restrictions and heterogenous consumers.

Suggested Citation

  • Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Risk Pricing over Alternative Investment Horizons," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1571-1611, Elsevier.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finchp:2-b-1571-1611
    DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-44-459406-8.00023-8
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