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Risk Pricing over Alternative Investment Horizons

  • Lars Peter Hansen

    ()

    (The University of Chicago)

I explore methods that characterize model-based valuation of stochastically growing cash flows. Following previous research, I use stochastic discount factors as a convenient device to depict asset values. I extend that literature by focusing on the impact of compounding these discount factors over alternative investment horizons. In modeling cash flows, I also incorporate stochastic growth factors. I explore dynamic value decomposition (DVD) methods that capture concurrent compounding of a stochastic growth and discount factors in determining risk-adjusted values. These methods are supported by factorizations that extract martingale components of stochastic growth and discount factors. These components reveal which ingredients of a model have long-term implications for valuation. The resulting martingales imply convenient changes in measure that are distinct from those used in mathematical finance, and they provide the foundations for analyzing model-based implications for the term structure of risk prices. As an illustration of the methods, I re-examine some recent preference based models. I also use the martingale extraction to revisit the value implications of some benchmark models with market restrictions and heterogenous consumers.

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File URL: http://econresearch.uchicago.edu/sites/econresearch.uchicago.edu/files/BFI_2012-008.pdf
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Paper provided by Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2012-008.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2012-008
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://bfi.uchicago.edu/
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  2. Cosmin Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2012. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," Working Papers 12-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
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  7. Andrew B. Abel, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching up with the Joneses," NBER Working Papers 3279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lars Peter Hansen & Jose Scheinkman, 2006. "Long Term Risk: An Operator Approach," NBER Working Papers 12650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, 04.
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  12. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini Jr., 1997. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Levine's Working Paper Archive 596, David K. Levine.
  13. Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "Implications of security market data for models of dynamic economies," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 29, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Zhang, H.H., 1995. "Endogenous Borrowing Constraints with Incomplete Markets," GSIA Working Papers 1995-25, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
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  18. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
  19. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
  20. Garcia, Rene & Renault, Eric & Semenov, Andrei, 2006. "Disentangling risk aversion and intertemporal substitution through a reference level," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 181-193, September.
  21. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2006. "Household heterogeneity and real exchange rates," Staff Report 372, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  22. Lars Peter Hansen & Jaroslav BoroviÄka & Mark Hendricks & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2010. "Risk Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2010-004, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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  25. Heaton, John, 1995. "An Empirical Investigation of Asset Pricing with Temporally Dependent Preference Specifications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(3), pages 681-717, May.
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  27. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
  28. Lars Peter Hansen & John Heaton & Erzo Luttmer, 1993. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Jamshidian, Farshid, 1989. " An Exact Bond Option Formula," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 205-09, March.
  30. Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1989. "Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Volatility of Consumption and Wealth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 73-89.
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  34. Cogley, Timothy, 2002. "Idiosyncratic risk and the equity premium: evidence from the consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 309-334, March.
  35. Bansal, Ravi & Lehmann, Bruce N., 1997. "Growth-Optimal Portfolio Restrictions On Asset Pricing Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 333-354, June.
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