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The term structure of equity risk premia

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  • Bansal, Ravi
  • Miller, Shane
  • Song, Dongho
  • Yaron, Amir

Abstract

We estimate a regime-switching model for the equity term structure with Bayesian methods. Our approach accounts for the data sample being unrepresentative of the population distribution of regimes. We find that (i) the term structure of expected equity dividend strip returns is downward sloping in recessions and upward sloping in expansions, and (ii) the unconditional term structure of expected equity returns is positively sloped. Our estimation shows that the sample unrepresentativeness induces a downward bias in the estimate of the equity term structure slope. We present a regime-switching consumption-based asset-pricing model that matches the empirical findings.

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  • Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:3:p:1209-1228
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.043
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    2. Foley, Sean & Li, Simeng & Malloch, Hamish & Svec, Jiri, 2022. "What is the expected return on Bitcoin? Extracting the term structure of returns from options prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. Belén Nieto & Gonzalo Rubio, 2022. "The Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Risk Factors and Option-Implied Expected Market Risk Premia: An International Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-29, January.
    4. A. Ronald Gallant & George Tauchen, 2021. "Cash Flows Discounted Using a Model-Free SDF Extracted under a Yield Curve Prior," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Pier dup Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2015. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "An equilibrium model of the term structures of bonds and equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
    8. Jeffrey L. Callen & Matthew R. Lyle, 2020. "The term structure of implied costs of equity capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 342-404, March.
    9. Patricia M. Dechow & Ryan D. Erhard & Richard G. Sloan & And Mark T. Soliman, 2021. "Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 243-281, March.
    10. Oliver Boguth & Murray Carlson & Adlai Fisher & Mikhail Simutin, 2023. "The Term Structure of Equity Risk Premia: Levered Noise and New Estimates," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1155-1182.
    11. Gonçalves, Andrei S., 2021. "The short duration premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 919-945.
    12. Michael Hasler & Mariana Khapko & Roberto Marfè, 2020. "Rational Learning and the Term Structures of Value and Growth Risk Premia," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 622, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    13. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Eben Lazarus, 2023. "Duration‐Driven Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1393-1447, June.
    14. Jankauskas, Tomas, 2023. "Essays in empirical finance," Other publications TiSEM 4c319f87-ba97-44be-897e-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.
    16. Koichiro Moriya & Akihiko Noda, 2023. "On the Time-Varying Structure of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory using the Japanese Sector Indices," Papers 2305.05998, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Business cycle phases; Dividend strips; Equity term structure; Regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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