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Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk

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  • PATRICIA M. DECHOW
  • RYAN D. ERHARD
  • RICHARD G. SLOAN
  • AND MARK T. SOLIMAN

Abstract

Implied equity duration was originally developed to analyze the sensitivity of equity prices to discount rate changes. We demonstrate that implied equity duration is also useful for analyzing the sensitivity of equity prices to pandemic shutdowns. Pandemic shutdowns primarily impact short‐term cash flows, thus they have a greater impact on low‐duration equities. We show that implied equity duration has a strong positive relation to U.S. equity returns and analyst forecast revisions during the onset of the 2020 COVID‐19 shutdown. Our analysis also demonstrates that the underperformance of “value” stocks during this period is a rational response to their lower durations.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia M. Dechow & Ryan D. Erhard & Richard G. Sloan & And Mark T. Soliman, 2021. "Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 243-281, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:59:y:2021:i:1:p:243-281
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12348
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhang, Yuming & Xing, Chao & Zhang, Quanli & Zhang, Xinyue, 2022. "Crises and changes: The impacts of CSR expenditure on loan and subsidy allocation in China's Pre- and Post-Pandemic periods," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    3. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
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    5. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2022. "The role of non-critical business and telework propensity in international stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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