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Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?

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  • Coibion, Olivier

    (University of Texas at Austin)

  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Weber, Michael

    (World Bank)

Abstract

Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the Covid-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis affects households' expectations. We provide random subsets of participants in the Nielsen Homescan panel with different combinations of information about the severity of the pandemic, recent actions by the Federal Reserve, stimulus measures, as well as recommendations from health officials. This experiment allows us to assess to what extent these policy announcements alter the beliefs and spending plans of households. In short, they do not, contrary to the powerful effects they have in standard macroeconomic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?," IZA Discussion Papers 13355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13355
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples [Rationally Confused: On the Aggregate Implications of Information Provision Policies]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rossello, Giulia & Martinelli, Arianna, 2023. "The effect of lobbies’ narratives on academics' perceptions of scientific publishing: An information provision experiment," MERIT Working Papers 2023-010, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 34-53, March.
    3. Ehrmann, Michael & Blinder, Alan & De Haan, Jakob & ,, 2022. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Jordi Brandts & Isabel Busom & Cristina Lopez-Mayan & Judith Panadés, 2022. "“Pictures are worth many words: Effectiveness of visual communication in dispelling the rent–control misconception”," AQR Working Papers 202202, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Feb 2022.
    5. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2022. "Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 1-14.
    6. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2023. "Do monetary condition news at the zero lower bound influence households’ expectations and readiness to spend?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Jordi Brandts & Isabel Busom & Cristina Lopez-Mayan & Judith Panadés, 2022. "Images Say More Than Just Words: Effectiveness of Visual and Text Communication in Dispelling the Rent–Control Misconception," Working Papers 1322, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Meyer, Brent H. & Prescott, Brian & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 529-544.
    9. Edward L. Glaeser & Ginger Z. Jin & Benjamin T. Leyden & Michael Luca, 2021. "Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID‐19," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 696-709, September.
    10. Hodbod, Alexander & Hommes, Cars & Huber, Stefanie J. & Salle, Isabelle, 2021. "The COVID-19 consumption game-changer: Evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Faia, Ester & Fuster, Andreas & Pezone, Vincenzo & Zafar, Basit, 2021. "Biases in information selection and processing: Survey evidence from the pandemic," SAFE Working Paper Series 307, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    12. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
    13. Dylong, Patrick & Koenings, Fabian, 2023. "Framing of economic news and policy support during a pandemic: Evidence from a survey experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
    15. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    16. Mariusz Zieliński, 2022. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labor Markets of the Visegrad Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Haan, Peter & Peichl, Andreas & Schrenker, Annekatrin & Weizsäcker, Georg & Winter, Joachim, 2022. "Expectation management of policy leaders: Evidence from COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    18. Shadrina, Elena V. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V. & Kashin, Dmitry V., 2022. "Implicit incentives in green public procurement: Good intentions versus rigid regulations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    19. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    20. Patricia M. Dechow & Ryan D. Erhard & Richard G. Sloan & And Mark T. Soliman, 2021. "Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 243-281, March.
    21. Rafkin, Charlie & Shreekumar, Advik & Vautrey, Pierre-Luc, 2021. "When guidance changes: Government stances and public beliefs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    22. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J., 2023. "Consumers' Macroeconomic Expectations," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-714, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    23. Bui, Dzung & Dräger, Lena & Hayo, Bernd & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Macroeconomic expectations and consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of others’ beliefs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    24. Gutierrez, Emilio & Rubli, Adrian & Tavares, Tiago, 2022. "Information and behavioral responses during a pandemic: Evidence from delays in Covid-19 death reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    subjective expectations; fiscal policy; monetary policy; COVID-19; surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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