IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_7108.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Woodford

Abstract

It is common to analyze the effects of alternative monetary policy commitments under the assumption of fully model-consistent expectations. This implicitly assumes unrealistic cognitive abilities on the part of economic decision makers. The relevant question, however, is not whether the assumption can be literally correct, but how much it would matter to model decision making in a more realistic way. A model is proposed, based on the architecture of artificial intelligence programs for problems such as chess or go, in which decision makers look ahead only a finite distance into the future, and use a value function learned from experience to evaluate situations that may be reached after a finite sequence of actions by themselves and others. Conditions are discussed under which the predictions of a model with finite-horizon forward planning are similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium, and under which they are instead quite different. The model is used to re-examine the consequences that should be expected from a central-bank commitment to maintain a fixed nominal interest rate for a substantial period of time. Neo-Fisherian predictions are shown to depend on using rational expectations equilibrium analysis under circumstances in which it should be expected to be unreliable.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Woodford, 2018. "Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite," CESifo Working Paper Series 7108, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7108
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7108.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mariana García-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2019. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(1), pages 86-120, January.
    2. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    3. Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson & Guillermo Moloche & Stephen Weinberg, 2006. "Costly Information Acquisition: Experimental Analysis of a Boundedly Rational Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1043-1068, September.
    4. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 113-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2012. "Learning in a Medium-Scale DSGE Model with Expectations Based on Small Forecasting Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 65-101, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Morris, Stephen D., 2020. "Is the Taylor principle still valid when rates are low?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Calvert Jump, Robert & Hommes, Cars & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Learning, heterogeneity, and complexity in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 446-470.
    3. Chatterjee, Pratiti & Milani, Fabio, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty shocks, excess optimism-pessimism, and learning in the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 342-360.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2020. "Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8369, CESifo.
    5. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "Human Frictions to the Transmission of Economic Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Estimation of Heuristic Switching in Behavioral Macroeconomic Models," Economics Working Papers 2021-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    7. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    8. Mauersberger, Felix & Nagel, Rosemarie & Bühren, Christoph, 2020. "Bounded rationality in Keynesian beauty contests: A lesson for central bankers?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 14, pages 1-38.
    9. Mariana García-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2019. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(1), pages 86-120, January.
    10. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2020. "Effective Policy Communication: Targets versus Instruments," Working Papers 2020-148, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    11. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "More is different ... and complex! the case for agent-based macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 1-37, March.
    12. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2020. "Effective Policy Communication: Targets versus Instruments," Working Papers 2020-148, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    14. Mauersberger, Felix, 2019. "Thompson Sampling: Endogenously Random Behavior in Games and Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203600, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?," IZA Discussion Papers 13355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Diba, Behzad & Loisel, Olivier, 2021. "Pegging the interest rate on bank reserves: A resolution of New Keynesian puzzles and paradoxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 230-244.
    17. Jump, Robert Calvert & Levine, Paul, 2019. "Behavioural New Keynesian models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 59-77.
    18. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Rational Confidence and Neo-Fisherian Depressions," EconPol Working Paper 38, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Woodford, 2019. "Monetary Policy Analysis When Planning Horizons Are Finite," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 1-50.
    2. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
    3. Edward Nelson, 2020. "Seven Fallacies Concerning Milton Friedman's “The Role of Monetary Policy”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 145-164, February.
    4. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Sentiment and the U.S. business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 289-311.
    5. Stephen J. Cole & Fabio Milani, 2020. "Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Sentiment, and Constant-Gain Learning," CESifo Working Paper Series 8343, CESifo.
    6. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2014. "Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 220-238.
    7. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2017. "On the initialization of adaptive learning in macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 26-53.
    8. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2017. "Dealing with Misspecification in DSGE Models: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. André, Marine Charlotte & Dai, Meixing, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 281-296.
    10. Bonam, Dennis & Goy, Gavin, 2019. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 25-42.
    11. Fuhrer, Jeff, 2017. "Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 22-35.
    12. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
    13. Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016. "Long-run growth uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
    14. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.
    15. Winkler, Fabian, 2020. "The role of learning for asset prices and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 42-58.
    16. Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph, 2018. "Expectation formation, financial frictions, and forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    17. Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "Fiscal stimulus in expectations-driven liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 661-687.
    18. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Working Papers 0686, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    19. Michau, Jean-Baptiste, 2019. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap with inflation persistence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-28.
    20. Agustín Arias, 2016. "Sentiment Shocks as Drivers of Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 782, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward guidance; neo-Fisherianism; Fisher equation; bounded rationality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7108. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.