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A Macrofinance Model for Option Prices: A Story of Rare Economic Events

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Hasler

    (Naveen Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas 75080)

  • Alexandre Jeanneret

    (School of Banking and Finance, UNSW Business School, Kensington NSW 2052, Australia)

Abstract

We propose a macrofinance model that rationalizes robust features in equity index option markets. When rare disasters are followed by economic recoveries, the slope of the implied volatility term structure is positive in good times but turns negative in bad times. Additionally, implied volatility decreases with moneyness in bad times (volatility skew), whereas the shape becomes a smile in good times in the presence of rare economic booms. Our theory contributes to understanding the dynamics of the implied volatility surface yet keeping standard asset-pricing moments realistic.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hasler & Alexandre Jeanneret, 2023. "A Macrofinance Model for Option Prices: A Story of Rare Economic Events," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(9), pages 5543-5559, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:69:y:2023:i:9:p:5543-5559
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4587
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