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Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns

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  • Cakici, Nusret
  • Zaremba, Adam

Abstract

Does past stock price reaction to pandemics contain information about future returns? To answer this, we estimate firm exposure to a pandemic index representing global concerns of infectious diseases. We demonstrate that such a pandemic beta reliably predicts the cross-section of future stock returns. The highest pandemic beta decile outperforms the lowest pandemic beta decile by about 1% per month on a risk-adjusted basis. The effect is not explained by well-known return predictors and is robust to many considerations. Our findings indicate that investors do not correctly price information stemming from firms’ reactions to pandemics.

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  • Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s1042443121000524
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101333
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; Epidemic; COVID-19; Novel coronavirus; Pandemic index; Asset pricing; The cross-section of stock returns; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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    Access and download statistics

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