IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v63y2024i2d10.1007_s11156-024-01269-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cash flow duration and market reactions to earnings announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Wenlian Gao

    (Northern Illinois University)

Abstract

This study examines how a stock security’s cash flow duration impacts stock price reactions at earnings announcements. We find that stock price reactions are positively associated with cash flow duration, especially when earnings surprises are negative. Our results imply that long duration creates a leverage effect that magnifies the price reaction around earnings announcements. We further show that the greater stock price reaction for firms with longer cash flow duration could be caused by less accurate analyst forecasts and short-sales constraints. Finally, we find that the effect of cash flow duration generally increases over time, being more notable during financial crisis and less notable when investor sentiment is high.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenlian Gao, 2024. "Cash flow duration and market reactions to earnings announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 679-714, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:63:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-024-01269-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-024-01269-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-024-01269-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-024-01269-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bai, Min & Qin, Yafeng, 2015. "Short sales constraints and price adjustments to earnings announcements: Evidence from the Hong Kong market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 304-315.
    2. Edmund Keung & Zhi‐Xing Lin & Michael Shih, 2010. "Does the Stock Market See a Zero or Small Positive Earnings Surprise as a Red Flag?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 91-121, March.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    4. Roger K. Loh & Mujtaba Mian, 2003. "The Quality of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 749-770, June.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    6. Beaver, William H. & McNichols, Maureen F. & Wang, Zach Z., 2020. "Increased market response to earnings announcements in the 21st century: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1).
    7. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    9. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    10. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    11. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Eben Lazarus, 2023. "Duration‐Driven Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1393-1447, June.
    12. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    13. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    14. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    15. David Hirshleifer & Sonya Seongyeon Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2009. "Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2325, October.
    16. William H. Beaver & Maureen F. McNichols & Zach Z. Wang, 2018. "The information content of earnings announcements: new insights from intertemporal and cross-sectional behavior," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 95-135, March.
    17. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    18. Hagerman, Rl & Zmijewski, Me & Shah, P, 1984. "The Association Between The Magnitude Of Quarterly Earnings Forecast Errors And Risk-Adjusted Stock Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 526-540.
    19. Edmund Keung & Zhi‐Xing Lin & Michael Shih, 2010. "Does the Stock Market See a Zero or Small Positive Earnings Surprise as a Red Flag?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 105-136, March.
    20. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2018. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1567-1613, August.
    21. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    22. Gregory D. Kane & Ryan D. Leece & Frederick M. Richardson & Uma Velury, 2015. "The Impact of Recession on the Value-relevance of Accounting Information," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 25(2), pages 185-191, June.
    23. Weber, Michael, 2018. "Cash flow duration and the term structure of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 486-503.
    24. Mark T. Bradshaw & Richard G. Sloan, 2002. "GAAP versus The Street: An Empirical Assessment of Two Alternative Definitions of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 41-66, March.
    25. Ray Ball & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2008. "How Much New Information Is There in Earnings?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 975-1016, December.
    26. Charles Cao & Timothy Simin & Jing Zhao, 2008. "Can Growth Options Explain the Trend in Idiosyncratic Risk?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2599-2633, November.
    27. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    28. William Beaver & Bradford Cornell & Wayne R. Landsman & Stephen R. Stubben, 2008. "The Impact of Analysts' Forecast Errors and Forecast Revisions on Stock Prices," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5-6), pages 709-740.
    29. Beaver, Wh & Clarke, R & Wright, Wf, 1979. "Association Between Unsystematic Security Returns And The Magnitude Of Earnings Forecast Errors," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 316-340.
    30. Patricia M. Dechow & Ryan D. Erhard & Richard G. Sloan & And Mark T. Soliman, 2021. "Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 243-281, March.
    31. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    32. Roger K. Loh & Mujtaba Mian, 2003. "The Quality of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5-6), pages 749-770.
    33. Stefano Dellavigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 709-749, April.
    34. David Schröder & Florian Esterer, 2016. "A New Measure of Equity and Cash Flow Duration: The Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 857-900, August.
    35. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    36. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    37. William Beaver & Bradford Cornell & Wayne R. Landsman & Stephen R. Stubben, 2008. "The Impact of Analysts' Forecast Errors and Forecast Revisions on Stock Prices," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5‐6), pages 709-740, June.
    38. Wayne R. Landsman & Edward L. Maydew, 2002. "Has the Information Content of Quarterly Earnings Announcements Declined in the Past Three Decades?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 797-808, June.
    39. Zhi Da, 2009. "Cash Flow, Consumption Risk, and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 923-956, April.
    40. deHaan, Ed & Shevlin, Terry & Thornock, Jacob, 2015. "Market (in)attention and the strategic scheduling and timing of earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 36-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    2. Chordia, Tarun & Miao, Bin, 2020. "Market efficiency in real time: Evidence from low latency activity around earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    3. Das, Somnath & King, Alexander Z., 2021. "Measuring the informativeness of earnings announcements: The role of event windows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 350-367.
    4. Schnaubelt, Matthias & Seifert, Oleg, 2020. "Valuation ratios, surprises, uncertainty or sentiment: How does financial machine learning predict returns from earnings announcements?," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2020, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    5. He, Wen & Li, Yan, 2020. "Comparing with the average: Reference points and market reactions to above-average earnings surprises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    6. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Lin Sun, 2020. "Short- and Long-Horizon Behavioral Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1673-1736.
    7. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    8. Mustafa K. Yılmaz & Mine Aksoy & Tankut T. Çelik, 2020. "Market reaction to regulatory policy changes in financial statements filings: evidence from Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(4), pages 567-605, December.
    9. Barinov, Alexander, 2017. "Institutional ownership and aggregate volatility risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 20-38.
    10. Nguyen, Hung T. & Truong, Cameron, 2018. "When are extreme daily returns not lottery? At earnings announcements!," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 92-116.
    11. Da, Zhi & Warachka, Mitch, 2011. "The disparity between long-term and short-term forecasted earnings growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 424-442, May.
    12. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    13. Shuai Shao & Robert Stoumbos & X. Frank Zhang, 2021. "The power of firm fundamental information in explaining stock returns," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1249-1289, December.
    14. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    15. Chen, Jason V., 2023. "The wisdom of crowds and the market's response to earnings news: Evidence using the geographic dispersion of investors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2).
    16. Choi, Bong-Geun & Choi, Jung Ho & Malik, Sara, 2023. "Not just for investors: The role of earnings announcements in guiding job seekers," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1).
    17. Nguyen, Nhut H. & Truong, Cameron, 2013. "The information content of stock markets around the world: A cultural explanation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-29.
    18. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    19. Martineau, Charles, 2021. "Rest in Peace Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," SocArXiv z7k3p, Center for Open Science.
    20. repec:osf:socarx:z7k3p_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Albert Tsang & Kun Tracy Wang & Nathan Zhenghang Zhu, 2025. "Foreign media slant, foreign investors, and informativeness of earnings," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 79-118, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash flow duration; Earnings announcements; Stock price reaction; Analyst forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:63:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-024-01269-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.