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Vulnerable growth

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We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time: Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth vulnerability dynamics.

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  • Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2016. "Vulnerable growth," Staff Reports 794, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Nov 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:794
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    Cited by:

    1. Divya Kirti, 2018. "Lending standards and output growth," 2018 Meeting Papers 203, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Marek Raczko, 2018. "Measuring financial cycle time," BIS Working Papers 755, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Antonio M. Conti & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "The Financial Stability Dark Side of Monetary Policy," BCAM Working Papers 1601, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    4. Crump, Richard K. & Giannone, Domenico & Hundtofte , Sean, 2018. "Changing risk-return profiles," Staff Reports 850, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Anene, Dominic & D'Amico, Stefania, 2017. "A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series WP-2017-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. repec:anr:reveco:v:10:y:2018:p:615-643 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    8. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What anchors for the natural rate of interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2018.
    9. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "How do policies influence GDP tail risks?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1339, OECD Publishing.
    10. Isabel Cairo & Jae Sim, 2017. "Income Inequality, Financial Crises and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 1433, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Isabel Cairo & Jae W. Sim, 2018. "Income Inequality, Financial Crises, and Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    12. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Downside risk; entropy; quantile regressions;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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