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Financial conditions, business cycle fluctuations and growth-at-risk

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  • Falconio, Andrea
  • Manganelli, Simone

Abstract

We augment a quantile vector autoregressive model with the interquartile range of economic growth, a robust proxy for volatility, to assess the relative importance of financial conditions and economic risk in affecting the business cycle. We find that economic risk displays an asymmetric effect on economic growth distribution, very much similar to financial conditions: they substantially increase growth-at-risk, but have limited impact on upside potential. We also document that the asymmetric impact of economic risk depends on the state of the economy and is substantially amplified in times of high economic risk, while remaining subdued in tranquil times.

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  • Falconio, Andrea & Manganelli, Simone, 2025. "Financial conditions, business cycle fluctuations and growth-at-risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:176:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000752
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105109
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    2. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Luo, Sui & Ma, Jun, 2024. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and macroeconomic tail risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek & Greiwe, Moritz, 2023. "Medium-term growth-at-risk in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2808, European Central Bank.
    5. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Macroprudential stance assessment: problems of measurement, literature review and some comments for the case of Croatia," Working Papers 72, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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