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Time-varying stock return correlation, news shocks, and business cycles

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  • Metiu, Norbert
  • Prieto, Esteban

Abstract

The cross-sectional average of pairwise correlations across stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and Nasdaq is a powerful predictor of U.S. economic activity at a horizon of one to four years. Its predictive ability is on a par with the slope of the yield curve and significantly exceeds that of some other widely used financial indicators. The macroeconomic effects of an innovation to stock return correlation in a vector autoregression are nearly identical to those of a news shock about future productivity. Thus, market-wide changes in return correlation contain information about changes in future technological developments.

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  • Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2023. "Time-varying stock return correlation, news shocks, and business cycles," Discussion Papers 05/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:052023
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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