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Labor Supply Factors and Economic Fluctuations


  • Claudia Foroni

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Francesco Furlanetto

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Antoine Lepetit

    (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)


We propose a new VAR identfi cation scheme that enables us to disentangle labor supply shocks from wage bargaining shocks. Identifi cation is achieved by imposing robust signrestrictions that are derived from a New Keynesian model with endogenous labor force participation. According to our analysis on US data over the period 1985-2014, labor supply shocks and wage bargaining shocks are important drivers of output and unemployment both in the short run and in the long run. These results suggest that identification strategies used in estimated New Keynesian models to disentangle labor market shocks may be misguided. We also analyze the behavior of the labor force participation rate through the lenses of our model. We find that labor supply shocks are the main drivers of the participation rate and account for about half of its decline in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Foroni & Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit, 2015. "Labor Supply Factors and Economic Fluctuations," Working Paper 2015/07, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2015_07

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    Cited by:

    1. Kocaarslan, Baris & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "The asymmetric impact of oil prices, interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Francisco Perez-Arce & Maria J. Prados & Tarra Kohli, 2018. "The Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Working Papers wp385, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    3. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Codrina Rada & Marcio Santetti & Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The US labour share of income: What shocks matter?," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_02, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    4. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2016. "The Government Spending Multiplier in a Deep Recession," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 16.22, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    5. Stefan Schiman, 2018. "Labor Supply Shocks and the Beveridge Curve," WIFO Working Papers 568, WIFO.
    6. Elena Bobeica & Matteo Ciccarelli & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2019. "The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 848, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Klimenko, Nataliya & Pfeil, Sebastian & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2017. "A simple macroeconomic model with extreme financial frictions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 92-102.
    8. Gaigné, Carl & Sanch-Maritan, Mathieu, 2019. "City size and the risk of being unemployed. Job pooling vs. job competition," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 222-238.
    9. Thorsten Drautzburg & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana, 2017. "Political Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Carrillo, Julio A. & Elizondo, Rocio & Hernández-Román, Luis G., 2020. "Inquiry on the transmission of U.S. aggregate shocks to Mexico: A SVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    12. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    13. Nickel, Christiane & Bobeica, Elena & Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Porqueddu, Mario, 2019. "Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries," Occasional Paper Series 232, European Central Bank.
    14. Schiman, Stefan & Klein, Mathias, 2019. "What accounts for the German Labor Market Miracle? A Macroeconomic Investigation," Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203593, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    16. Lewis, Vivien & Villa, Stefania & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Labor productivity, effort and the euro area business cycle," Discussion Papers 44/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Clara De Luigi & Florian Huber & Josef Schreiner, 2019. "The impact of labor cost growth on inflation in selected CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/19, pages 56-78.
    18. Gehrke, Britta & Yao, Fang, 2017. "Are supply shocks important for real exchange rates? A fresh view from the frequency-domain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 99-114.
    19. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili, 2019. "Wages and prices in the euro area: exploring the nexus," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 518, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Furlanetto, Francesco & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2016. "Reallocation shocks, persistence and nominal rigidities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 151-155.
    21. Julius Stakenas, 2018. "Slicing up inflation: analysis and forecasting of Lithuanian inflation components," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 56, Bank of Lithuania.

    More about this item


    labor supply shocks; wage mark-up shocks; identification; VAR; labor force participation;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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