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Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Schorfheide

    (University of Pennsylvania CEPR, NBER, PIER)

  • Dongho Song

    (Johns Hopkins Carey Business School)

Abstract

In this paper we resuscitate the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) de-veloped in Schorfheide and Song (2015) to generate real-time macroeconomic forecasts for the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic. The model combines eleven time series observed at two frequencies: quarterly and monthly. We deliberately do not modify the model speci?cation in view of the recession induced by the COVID-19 outbreak. We ?nd that forecasts based on a pre-crisis estimate of the VAR using data up until the end of 2019 appear to be more stable and reasonable than forecasts based on a sequence of recursive estimates that include the most recent observations. Overall, the MF-VAR outlook is quite pessimistic. The estimated MF-VAR implies that level variables are highly persistent, which means that the COVID-19 shock generates a long-lasting reduction in real activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:20-039
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; COVID-19; Macroeconomic Forecasting; Minnesota Prior; Real-time data; Vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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