IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ial/wpaper/2-2021.html

A Neural Network Ensemble Approach for GDP Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Luigi Longo

    (IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca)

  • Massimo Riccaboni

    (IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca)

  • Armando Rungi

    (IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca)

Abstract

We propose an ensemble learning methodology to forecast the future US GDP growth release. Our approach combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with a Dynamic Factor model accounting for time-variation in mean with a General- ized Autoregressive Score (DFM-GAS). The analysis is based on a set of predictors encompassing a wide range of variables measured at different frequencies. The forecast exercise is aimed at evaluating the predictive ability of each model's com- ponent of the ensemble by considering variations in mean, potentially caused by recessions affecting the economy. Thus, we show how the combination of RNN and DFM-GAS improves forecasts of the US GDP growth rate in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. We find that a neural network ensemble markedly reduces the root mean squared error for the short-term forecast horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Longo & Massimo Riccaboni & Armando Rungi, 2021. "A Neural Network Ensemble Approach for GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 02/2021, IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca, revised Mar 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:ial:wpaper:2/2021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.imtlucca.it/4081/
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Oleg Kryzhanovskiy & Anastasia Mogilat & Zhanna Shuvalova & Dmitry Gvozdev, 2025. "Using LSTM Neural Networks for Nowcasting and Forecasting GVA of Industrial Sectors," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(1), pages 93-104, March.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Goebel & Karin Klieber, 2024. "Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning Forecasts," Papers 2412.13076, arXiv.org.
    4. Castello, Oleksandr & Resta, Marina, 2025. "Univariate and multivariate forecasting of the electricity futures curve using Dynamic Recurrent Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 394(C).
    5. Alexandra Bozhechkova & Urmat Dzhunkeev, 2024. "CLARA and CARLSON: Combination of Ensemble and Neural Network Machine Learning Methods for GDP Forecasting," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(3), pages 45-69, September.
    6. Hamdy Ahmad Aly Alhendawy & Mohammed Galal Abdallah Mostafa & Mohamed Ibrahim Elgohari & Ibrahim Abdalla Abdelraouf Mohamed & Nabil Medhat Arafat Mahmoud & Mohamed Ahmed Mohamed Mater, 2023. "Determinants of Renewable Energy Production in Egypt New Approach: Machine Learning Algorithms," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 679-689, November.
    7. Juan Tenorio & Wilder Perez, 2024. "Monthly GDP nowcasting with Machine Learning and Unstructured Data," Papers 2402.04165, arXiv.org.
    8. Bachmair, K. & Schmitz, N., 2025. "Forecasting Macro with Finance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2574, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Theo Berger & Jana Koubová, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin returns: Econometric time series analysis vs. machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2904-2916, November.
    10. David Stoneman & John V. Duca, 2024. "Using deep (machine) learning to forecast US inflation in the COVID‐19 era," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 894-902, July.
    11. Dmytro Krukovets, 2024. "Exploring an LSTM-SARIMA routine for core inflation forecasting," Technology audit and production reserves, PC TECHNOLOGY CENTER, vol. 2(2(76)), pages 6-12, April.
    12. Aleksey I. Shinkevich & Irina G. Ershova & Farida F. Galimulina, 2022. "Forecasting the Efficiency of Innovative Industrial Systems Based on Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    13. Renbo Liu & Yuhui Ge & Peng Zuo, 2023. "Study on Economic Data Forecasting Based on Hybrid Intelligent Model of Artificial Neural Network Optimized by Harris Hawks Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-28, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ial:wpaper:2/2021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Leonardo Mezzina (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emimtit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.