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On the information content of explainable artificial intelligence for quantitative approaches in finance

Author

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  • Theo Berger

    (Hannover University of Applied Sciences
    University of Bremen)

Abstract

We simulate economic data to apply state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms and analyze the economic precision of competing concepts for model agnostic explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques. Also, we assess empirical data and provide a discussion of the competing approaches in comparison with econometric benchmarks, when the data-generating process is unknown. The simulation assessment provides evidence that the applied XAI techniques provide similar economic information on relevant determinants when the data generating process is linear. We find that the adequate choice of XAI technique is crucial when the data generating process is unknown. In comparison to econometric benchmark models, the application of boosted regression trees in combination with Shapley values combines both a superior fit to the data and innovative interpretable insights into non-linear impact factors. Therefore it describes a promising alternative to the econometric benchmark approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Theo Berger, 2025. "On the information content of explainable artificial intelligence for quantitative approaches in finance," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 47(1), pages 177-203, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:orspec:v:47:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s00291-024-00769-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00291-024-00769-9
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance; Machine learning; Tree ensembles; Interpretable machine learning; Equity premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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