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Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index

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Abstract

This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of ten series available the Thursday after the end of the reference week. In addition to being a weekly real activity index, the WEI has strong predictive power for output measures and provided an accurate nowcast of current-quarter GDP growth in the first half of 2020. We document how the WEI responded to key events and data releases during the first six months of the pandemic.

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  • Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2020. "Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index," Staff Reports 920, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:87768
    Note: Revised September 2020. Previous title: “U.S. Economic Activity during the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak”
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; measurement of economic activity; weekly economic index; high frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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