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The DEI: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown

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  • António Rua
  • Nuno Lourenço

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has spread worldwide causing unprecedented disruptions in the economies. These unparalleled changes in economic conditions made clear the urgent need to depart from traditional statistics to inform policy responses. Hence, the interest in tracking economic activity in a timely manner has led economic agents to rely on high-frequency data as traditional statistics are released with a lag and available at a lower frequency. Naturally, taking on board such a novel data involves addressing some of the complexities of highfrequency data (e.g. marked seasonal patterns or calendar effects). Herein, we propose a daily economic indicator (DEI), which can be used to assess the behavior of economic activity during the lockdown period in Portugal. The indicator points to a sudden and sharp drop of economic activity around mid-March 2020, when the highest level of alert due to the COVID-19 pandemic was declared in March 12. It declined further after the declaration of the State of Emergency in the entire Portuguese territory in March 18, reflecting the lockdown of several economic activities. The DEI also points to an unprecedented decline of economic activity in the first half of April, with some very mild signs of recovery at the end of the month.

Suggested Citation

  • António Rua & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "The DEI: tracking economic activity daily during the lockdown," Working Papers w202013, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.
    2. Ali B. Barlas & Seda Guler Mert & Berk Orkun Isa & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & Baris Soybilgen & Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Big Data Information and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions in Turkey," Papers 2107.03299, arXiv.org.
    3. Wegmüller, Philipp & Glocker, Christian & Guggia, Valentino, 2023. "Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-243.

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