Should transportation output be included as part of the coincident indicators system?
With the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles. This paper explores the usefulness of the transportation services output index (TSI) as an additional coincident indicator in determining the peaks and troughs of US economy. The index represents a service sector that plays a central role in facilitating economic activities between sectors and across regions, and can be useful in monitoring the current state of the economy. We evaluate the marginal contribution of the TSI in identifying cyclical turning points in the context of four currently used NBER indicators. The TSI is found to have advantages over the composite index of coincident indicators in identifying turning points, and has been of critical importance in recent recessions.
Volume (Year): 2012 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 33-(0)-1-45 24 82 00
Fax: 33-(0)-1-45 24 85 00
Web page: http://www.oecd.org
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.oecd.org/bookshop?lang=en&pub=19952899|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000.
"Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1164, Econometric Society.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5k9bdtjzj45j. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.