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Weekly Economic Conditions Index for Turkey

Author

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  • Aysu Celgin
  • Mahmut Gunay

Abstract

[EN] In this study, a weekly index that aims tracking developments in economic activity in a timely manner is introduced. The index is formed by using weekly annual percentage changes of credit growth, expenditures by domestic and foreign cards, total number of job postings, electricity consumption and foreign trade data. Index is used to analyze the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the economic activity. The index indicates that the pandemic started to affect the economic activity negatively in the second half of March and the economy started to recover starting from the first week of May as the restrictions are started to be eased gradually. Overall, the index is successful in tracking the economic activity in Turkey. As a result, the index, which can be updated on a weekly frequency with the flow of information, can be used to produce timely nowcasts for the GDP growth. [TR] Bu calismada, gunluk ve haftalik olarak aciklanan yuksek frekansli veriler kullanilarak iktisadi faaliyetteki gelismeleri zamanli olarak izlemeye imkan veren haftalik frekansta olusturulmus bir endeks tanitilmaktadir. Krediler, banka ve kredi kartiyla yapilan harcamalar, is ilanlari, elektrik tuketimi ve dis ticaret verilerinin haftalik frekansta yillik yuzde degisimlerinden olusturulan endeks yardimiyla koronavirus pandemisinin iktisadi faaliyet uzerine etkileri analiz edilmistir.Endeks, pandemiye bagli etkilerin Mart ayinin ikinci yarisindan itibaren iktisadi faaliyeti olumsuz etkiledigine,Mayis ayi ile birlikte ise dipten donus sinyallerinin basladigina isaret etmektedir. Endeksin milli gelir buyumesini takip etmekte faydali oldugu bulunmustur.Bu cercevede, veri akisi ile birlikte haftalik olarak guncellenebilen endeks kisa donemli milli gelir tahminlerinde kullanilabilecektir.

Suggested Citation

  • Aysu Celgin & Mahmut Gunay, 2020. "Weekly Economic Conditions Index for Turkey," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2018, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:2018
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/e35e43c4-45d6-4a89-88bf-2959cb524dbd/en2018eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-e35e43c4-45d6-4a89-88bf-2959cb524dbd-nnADSFk
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.
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    1. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.

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