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Monetary policy, housing rents, and inflation dynamics

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  • Daniel A. Dias
  • João B. Duarte

Abstract

In this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing rents. Our main finding is that, in contrast to house prices, housing rents increase in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks. We also find that, after a contractionary monetary policy shock, rental vacancies and the homeownership rate decline. This combination of results suggests that monetary policy may affect housing tenure decisions (own versus rent). In addition, we show that, with the exception of the shelter component, all other main components of the consumer price index (CPI) either decline in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock or are not responsive. These findings motivated us to study the statistical properties of alternative measures of inflation that exclude the shelter component. We find that measures of inflation that exclude shelter have most of the statistical properties of the widely used measures of inflation, such as the CPI and the price index for personal consumption expenditures, but have higher standard deviations and react more to monetary policy shocks. Finally, we show that the response of housing rents accounts for a large proportion of the “price puzzle” found in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel A. Dias & João B. Duarte, 2019. "Monetary policy, housing rents, and inflation dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 673-687, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:34:y:2019:i:5:p:673-687
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2679
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    1. Boer, Lukas & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2021. "Qualitative versus quantitative external information for proxy vector autoregressive analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Koeniger, Winfried & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2018. "Home Ownership and Monetary Policy Transmission," IZA Discussion Papers 11950, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Schlaak, Thore, 2021. "Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242399, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Bertrand Achou & Hippolyte d'Albis & Eleni Iliopulo, 2021. "House prices and rents: a reappraisal," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 6, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    5. Bertrand Achou & Hippolyte d'Albis & Eleni Iliopulos, 2021. "Real Estate and Rental Markets during Covid Times," Documents de recherche 21-02, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B. Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2020/108, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Helmut Lütkepohl & Thore Schlaak, 2020. "Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1876, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Xuluo Yin & Xuan Xu & Qi Chen & Jiangang Peng, 2019. "The Sustainable Development of Financial Inclusion: How Can Monetary Policy and Economic Fundamental Interact with It Effectively?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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