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Impact of monetary policy on functional income distribution: A panel vector autoregressive analysis

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  • Lofaro, Antonino
  • Di Bucchianico, Stefano

Abstract

This study examines the impact of monetary policy on functional income distribution, which is defined here as the level of real wages and the size of the labor share of income. This topic has often been overshadowed by analyses of personal income inequality. Although prior research has presented mixed evidence while focusing on short-term effects, we investigate the medium-to long-term distributional consequences of monetary tightening. Using a panel vector autoregressive framework and a dataset encompassing 15 advanced economies from 1970 to 2019, we analyze how real wages and the labor share respond to contractionary monetary policy. Our findings reveal that contractionary monetary policies lead to persistent declines in both real wages and the labor share. By disentangling the underlying transmission mechanisms, we identify the labor market channel as the primary driver: the scarring effects on wages and labor force participation endure even after output and prices stabilize. These results underscore the importance of incorporating long-term distributional considerations into the formulation of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lofaro, Antonino & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2025. "Impact of monetary policy on functional income distribution: A panel vector autoregressive analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325002226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107227
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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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